| 项目编号: | 1648629
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| 项目名称: | Collaborative Research: Understanding the Origins of Hazardous Convective Weather Environments through Reduced-complexity Climate Modeling Experiments |
| 作者: | Kevin Reed
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| 承担单位: | SUNY at Stony Brook
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| 批准年: | 2017
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| 开始日期: | 2017-08-15
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| 结束日期: | 2020-07-31
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| 资助金额: | 330829
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| 资助来源: | US-NSF
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| 项目类别: | Standard Grant
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| 国家: | US
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 特色学科分类: | Geosciences - Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
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| 英文关键词: | hazardous convective weather
; hcw environment
; model weather hazard
; year
; reduced-complexity model
; certain larger-scale environment
; various complexity configuration
; convective weather
; deadly larger-scale environment
; research project
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| 英文摘要: | Hazardous convective weather (HCW), including tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail, poses significant risk to life and property each year. HCW events are small scale with short duration time, which makes it extremely difficult to predict their occurrence even a few hours in advance. However, they do often form and develop preferentially within certain larger-scale environments and primarily in a few geographical regions globally, the most prominent of which is the Eastern United States. Why these potentially deadly larger-scale environments are confined to such specific regions is not well understood. This lack of knowledge greatly limits our ability to predict how the risk posed to society by these events vary on inter-annual and multi-decadal timescales. This research project aims to examine the factors (such as land-sea contrasts, elevated terrain upstream, and their interferences with atmospheric jet streams) that contribute to environments favorable for the generation of HCW events. Because it is difficult to disentangle specific physical mechanisms that are responsible for HCW environments using observations and realistic modeling simulations alone, the PIs will perform a series of experiments using reduced-complexity models where gross representations of land and terrain are imposed under various complexity configurations.
The project is designed to enhance understanding of the fundamental processes underlying the natural hazards associated with convective weather. It aims to improve our capability to model weather hazards by determining the key elements that must be included in models to capture the distribution of HCWs and the risks they pose. The work addresses forecasting in an aggregate sense, focusing on how HCW activity is likely to change with large-scale conditions. The goal is to predict how HCW environments and, in turn, how the associated societal impacts, including loss of life and property damage, may change from year to year, decade to decade, and beyond. The project will train graduate student and post-doctoral scientists who will make future contributions to the burgeoning field of hazardous convective weather and climate. |
| 资源类型: | 项目
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/89335
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| Appears in Collections: | 全球变化的国际研究计划
科学计划与规划
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Kevin Reed. Collaborative Research: Understanding the Origins of Hazardous Convective Weather Environments through Reduced-complexity Climate Modeling Experiments. 2017-01-01.
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