DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066145
论文题名: On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity
作者: Wing A.A. ; Emanuel K. ; Solomon S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9344
EISSN: 1944-9075
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 20 起始页码: 8669
结束页码: 8677
语种: 英语
英文关键词: potential intensity
; tropical cyclone intensity
; tropical cyclones
; tropical tropopause layer
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Clouds
; Efficiency
; Oceanography
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Temperature
; Thermodynamics
; Tropics
; Uncertainty analysis
; Air-sea disequilibrium
; Interannual variability
; potential intensity
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Thermodynamic efficiency
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone intensity
; Tropical tropopause layers
; Hurricanes
; air-sea interaction
; cooling
; data set
; disequilibrium
; outflow
; sea surface temperature
; temperature
; thermodynamics
; trend analysis
; tropical cyclone
; tropopause
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Tropical cyclone potential intensity (Vp) is controlled by thermodynamic air-sea disequilibrium and thermodynamic efficiency, which is a function of the sea surface temperature and the tropical cyclone's outflow temperature. Observed trends and variability in Vp in each ocean basin are decomposed into contributions from these two components. Robustly detectable trends are found only in the North Atlantic, where tropical tropopause layer (TTL) cooling contributes up to a third of the increase in Vp. The contribution from disequilibrium dominates the few statistically significant Vp trends in the other basins. The results are sensitive to the data set used and details of the Vp calculation, reflecting uncertainties in TTL temperature trends and the difficulty of estimating Vp and its components. We also find that 20-71% of the interannual variability in Vp is linked to the TTL, with correlations between detrended time series of thermodynamic efficiency and Vp occurring over all ocean basins. Key Points Contributions to tropical cyclone potential intensity trends are quantified Robust trends only in Atlantic, disagreement between data sources elsewhere TTL temperatures play a role in interannual variability of potential intensity © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84946576851&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066145&partnerID=40&md5=b4a602c15b8e6a4b40b316c188e1fb12
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8959
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Wing A.A.,Emanuel K.,Solomon S.. On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(20).