globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065904
论文题名:
Investigation of the probability of concurrent drought events between the water source and destination regions of China's water diversion project
作者: Liu X.; Luo Y.; Yang T.; Liang K.; Zhang M.; Liu C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9467
EISSN: 1944-9198
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期:20
起始页码: 8424
结束页码: 8431
语种: 英语
英文关键词: concurrent drought events ; water diversion project
Scopus关键词: Climate models ; Flood control ; Probability ; Tectonics ; Adaptive measures ; concurrent drought events ; Global climate model ; North China Plain ; Return periods ; South-to-North water diversion project ; Sustainable operations ; Water diversion project ; Drought ; climate modeling ; crisis management ; drought ; global climate ; probability ; return period ; spatiotemporal analysis ; sustainability ; water management ; water supply ; China ; North China Plain
英文摘要: In this study, we investigate the concurrent drought probability between the water source and destination regions of the central route of China's South to North Water Diversion Project. We find that both regions have been drying from 1960 to 2013. The estimated return period of concurrent drought events in both regions is 11 years. However, since 1997, these regions have experienced 5 years of simultaneous drought. The projection results of global climate models show that the probability of concurrent drought events is highly likely to increase during 2020 to 2050. The increasing concurrent drought events will challenge the success of the water diversion project, which is a strategic attempt to resolve the water crisis of North China Plain. The data suggest great urgency in preparing adaptive measures to ensure the long-term sustainable operation of the water diversion project. Key Points Concurrent drought in the water source and destination can threaten a water diversion project The water source and destination have experienced 5 years of concurrent drought since 1997 The success of the project faces challenge if the frequently concurrent drought events continue © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84946601042&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065904&partnerID=40&md5=5a12dea2bd91b4d886821fa48bca685c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9082
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Liu X.,Luo Y.,Yang T.,et al. Investigation of the probability of concurrent drought events between the water source and destination regions of China's water diversion project[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(20).
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