| 项目编号: | 1624542
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| 项目名称: | Collaborative Research: Quantifying Megathrust Earthquake Ruptures with Coastal Stratigraphy and Tsunami Simulations, South-Central Chile |
| 作者: | Lisa Ely
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| 承担单位: | Central Washington University
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| 批准年: | 2016
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| 开始日期: | 2016-09-01
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| 结束日期: | 2019-08-31
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| 资助金额: | 267194
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| 资助来源: | US-NSF
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| 项目类别: | Standard Grant
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| 国家: | US
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 特色学科分类: | Geosciences - Earth Sciences
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| 英文关键词: | tsunami
; earthquake
; great earthquake
; south-central chile
; megathrust earthquake
; past earthquake
; chile
; year
; simulation
; multiple earthquake cycle
; south-central
; research team
; tsunami hazard
; researcher
; ancient earthquake
; tsunami simulation model
; prehistoric tsunami deposit
; paleotsunami deposit
; coastal sediment
; coastal landscape
; powerful tsunami wave
; valuable research experience
; tsunami activity
; magnitude
; numerical simulation
; tsunami wave
; coastal stratigraphic evidence
; change
; tsunami sand layer
; construct tsunami chronology
; tsunami deposit
; postdoctoral researcher
; past tsunami
; large earthquake
; interseismic coastal deformation
; tsunami history
; tsunami-deposit inundation
; location
; southern chile
; research project
; coastal geomorphic setting
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| 英文摘要: | On February 27, 2010, a great earthquake of magnitude 8.8 struck the coast of Chile. The uplift of the seafloor during the earthquake triggered a tsunami that swept over the coast. More than 525 people were killed and estimates of total economic losses were US $15-30 billion. Worldwide, only five great earthquakes since 1900 have been larger, including the largest earthquake ever recorded, which also occurred in southern Chile in May 1960. It is difficult to fully understand the behavior and effects of great earthquakes based on the handful that have occurred since scientific measurements began 100 years ago. A research team from Central Washington University and Rutgers University are using the long historical record (500 years) and geologic evidence of past earthquakes and tsunamis in Chile to investigate the effects of great earthquakes and tsunamis. Unusual sand deposits indicate that powerful tsunami waves swept landward multiple times in the last 2,000 years. Changes in the soil above and below the tsunami sand layers also indicate rising or sinking of the coastal landscape during earthquakes. Microscopic algae (diatoms) that live in coastal sediments are very sensitive to changes from fresh to salt water and vice versa. By identifying changes in the fossil diatoms present within ancient sediment layers, the amount of land-level change during past earthquakes can be precisely determined. The researchers are also using computer models of tsunami waves to calculate the locations and sizes of the fault ruptures that produced the past earthquakes based on these results. This combination of evidence will improve understanding of the frequency, location, and size of ancient earthquakes, and thus of the long-term behavior of the ocean-floor faults that produce them. The research team will engage in diverse activities to increase public awareness and education about earthquake and tsunami hazards in both the U.S. and Chile that include: production and distribution of a public service handbook in Spanish and English on preparing for and surviving a tsunami; presentations to the public, government officials, and local stakeholders; earthquake and tsunami activities for U.S. grade school children; and workshops for Hispanic and low-income students who are underrepresented in science careers. Graduate, undergraduate, and postdoctoral researchers will gain valuable research experience in the project.
Understanding the physics of subduction-zone deformation and accurately assessing the hazards from megathrust earthquakes and their accompanying tsunamis requires earthquake and tsunami histories of considerable detail over multiple earthquake cycles. Accurate and precise estimates of the amounts and timing of coseismic uplift and subsidence over multiple earthquake cycles are critical to understanding the long-term history of strain accumulation and release at subduction zones. South-central Chile was the site of two of Earth?s largest earthquakes (1960, Mw 9.5; 2010, Mw 8.8). However, prior to the past century, the 500-year written history of earthquakes and tsunamis provides limited information on rupture extent and magnitude. This research project uses coastal stratigraphic evidence of subsidence, uplift, and tsunami deposits to measure coseismic and interseismic vertical deformation and construct tsunami chronologies at sites along 600 km of the south-central Chilean subduction zone. Comparisons with forward simulations of tsunamis will identify best-fit rupture parameters (length, location, depth, magnitude) for megathrust earthquakes during the last 2000 years. Two new paleoseismic methods will be developed in this project. First, Bayesian diatom transfer functions that employ the relation between diatoms and salinity, tidal elevation, and life form will be used to reconstruct records of vertical land-level change during large earthquakes. The expanded modern diatom dataset, combined with new Bayesian diatom-based transfer functions, will significantly increase the accuracy and precision of microfossil-based reconstructions of coseismic and interseismic coastal deformation in south-central Chile. Second, tsunami simulation models will be used to create forward simulations of tsunamis and match them with the distributions of paleotsunami deposits to differentiate the rupture locations and lengths responsible for past tsunamis. By combining the deformation reconstructions with mapped tsunami-deposit inundation and latitudinal extent, the researchers will use numerical simulations to evaluate different rupture scenarios for past megathrust earthquakes. Such rupture modeling has not been attempted in south-central Chile, or published elsewhere at this large spatial scale. Maps of the deposits of the 1960, 2010, and earlier tsunamis in a variety of coastal geomorphic settings will provide important calibration comparisons for identifying prehistoric tsunami deposits and using them to infer inundation extent at other coastal sites subject to tsunami hazards. |
| 资源类型: | 项目
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/91113
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| Appears in Collections: | 全球变化的国际研究计划
科学计划与规划
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Lisa Ely. Collaborative Research: Quantifying Megathrust Earthquake Ruptures with Coastal Stratigraphy and Tsunami Simulations, South-Central Chile. 2016-01-01.
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