DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064458
论文题名: Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming
作者: Schurer A.P. ; Hegerl G.C. ; Obrochta S.P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9510
EISSN: 1944-9241
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 14 起始页码: 5974
结束页码: 5982
语种: 英语
英文关键词: natural climate variability
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Global warming
; Inter-decadal pacific oscillations
; Internal variability
; Model results
; Natural climate variabilities
; Proxy reconstruction
; Spatial patterns
; Surface temperatures
; Two sources
; Climate change
; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
; climate modeling
; decadal variation
; global warming
; hiatus
; reconstruction
; volcanic eruption
; Atlantic Ocean
; Indonesia
; Lesser Sunda Islands
; Sumbawa
; Tambora
; West Nusa Tenggara
英文摘要: The recent warming "hiatus" is subject to intense interest, with proposed causes including natural forcing and internal variability. Here we derive samples of all natural and internal variability from observations and a recent proxy reconstruction to investigate the likelihood that these two sources of variability could produce a hiatus or rapid warming in surface temperature. The likelihood is found to be consistent with that calculated previously for models and exhibits a similar spatial pattern, with an Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-like structure, although with more signal in the Atlantic than in model patterns. The number and length of events increases if natural forcing is also considered, particularly in the models. From the reconstruction it can be seen that large eruptions, such as Mount Tambora in 1815, or clusters of eruptions, may result in a hiatus of over 20years, a finding supported by model results. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84938954088&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064458&partnerID=40&md5=216d184f59aeec86745ea0e9a97e33cb
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9125
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Schurer A.P.,Hegerl G.C.,Obrochta S.P.. Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(14).