| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL064127
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| 论文题名: | Assessment of future changes in water availability and aridity |
| 作者: | Greve P.; Seneviratne S.I.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9517
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| EISSN: | 1944-9248
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:13 | | 起始页码: | 5493
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| 结束页码: | 5499
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | aridity
; climate change
; CMIP5
; dry gets drier, wet gets wetter
; water availability
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate change
; Climate models
; Driers (materials)
; aridity
; CMIP5
; Global land surface
; High-latitude regions
; Humid regions
; Hydrological cycles
; Water availability
; Wetting conditions
; Uncertainty analysis
; aridity
; climate change
; evapotranspiration
; future prospect
; humid environment
; hydrological cycle
; land surface
; precipitation assessment
; twenty first century
; water availability
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| 英文摘要: | Substantial changes in the hydrological cycle are projected for the 21st century, but these projections are subject to major uncertainties. In this context, the "dry gets drier, wet gets wetter" (DDWW) paradigm is often used as a simplifying summary. However, recent studies cast doubt on the validity of the paradigm and also on applying the widely used P - E (precipitation-evapotranspiration) metric over global land surfaces. Here we show in a comprehensive CMIP5-based assessment that projected changes in mean annual P - E are generally not significant, except for high-latitude regions showing wetting conditions until the end of the 21st century. Significant increases in aridity do occur in many subtropical and also adjacent humid regions. However, combining both metrics still shows that approximately 70% of all land area will not experience significant changes. Based on these findings, we conclude that the DDWW paradigm is generally not confirmed for projected changes in most land areas. Key Points Future changes in water availability and aridity are assessed Underlying uncertainties are explicitly taken into account The "dry gets drier, wet gets wetter" paradigm is challenged. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84938125223&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064127&partnerID=40&md5=60e4d553020b6d20223a4db5f5831086
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9132
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Greve P.,Seneviratne S.I.. Assessment of future changes in water availability and aridity[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(13).
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