DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063852
论文题名: Intermodel variations in projected precipitation change over the North Atlantic: Sea surface temperature effect
作者: Long S.-M. ; Xie S.-P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9541
EISSN: 1944-9272
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 10 起始页码: 4158
结束页码: 4165
语种: 英语
英文关键词: intermodel variability
; North Atlantic
; precipitation projection
; SST warming pattern
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Budget control
; Evaporation
; Ocean currents
; Rain
; Singular value decomposition
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Uncertainty analysis
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Intermodel variability
; Model uncertainties
; North Atlantic
; Precipitation change
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Surface evaporation
; Warming patterns
; Oceanography
; climate variation
; evaporation
; future prospect
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; temperature effect
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Gulf Stream
英文摘要: Intermodel variations in future precipitation projection in the North Atlantic are studied using 23 state-of-art models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Model uncertainty in annual mean rainfall change is locally enhanced along the Gulf Stream. The moisture budget analysis reveals that much of the model uncertainty in rainfall change can be traced back to the discrepancies in surface evaporation change and transient eddy effect among models. Results of the intermodel Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis show that intermodel variations in local sea surface temperature (SST) pattern exert a strong control over the spread of rainfall projection among models through the modulation of evaporation change. The first three SVD modes explain more than 60% of the intermodel variance of rainfall projection and show distinct SST patterns with mode water-induced banded structures, reduced subpolar warming due to ocean dynamical cooling, and the Gulf Stream shift, respectively. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84931567543&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063852&partnerID=40&md5=005b66984067b9f30b722e5768c53e34
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9156
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
Recommended Citation:
Long S.-M.,Xie S.-P.. Intermodel variations in projected precipitation change over the North Atlantic: Sea surface temperature effect[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(10).