DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065911
论文题名: Long-term cloud change imprinted in seasonal cloud variation: More evidence of high climate sensitivity
作者: Zhai C. ; Jiang J.H. ; Su H.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9608
EISSN: 1944-9339
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 20 起始页码: 8729
结束页码: 8737
语种: 英语
英文关键词: boundary layer cloud feedback
; climate sensitivity
; global warming response
; long-term climate change
; marine boundary layer cloud
; seasonal variation
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Boundary layers
; Climate models
; Global warming
; Oceanography
; Sensitivity analysis
; Surface waters
; Boundary layer clouds
; Climate sensitivity
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Marine boundary layer clouds
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal variation
; Standard deviation
; Time-scales
; Climate change
; boundary layer
; climate change
; climate modeling
; feedback mechanism
; global warming
; long-term change
; radiative transfer
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; sensitivity analysis
; warming
英文摘要: The large spread of model equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is mainly caused by the differences in the simulated marine boundary layer cloud (MBLC) radiative feedback. We examine the variations of MBLC fraction in response to the changes of sea surface temperature (SST) at seasonal and centennial time scales for 27 climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 and phase 5. We find that the intermodel spread in the seasonal variation of MBLC fraction with SST is strongly correlated with the intermodel spread in the centennial MBLC fraction change per degree of SST warming and that both are well correlated with ECS. Seven models that are consistent with the observed seasonal variation of MBLC fraction with SST at a rate -1.28 ± 0.56%/K all have ECS higher than the multimodel mean of 3.3 K yielding an ensemble-mean ECS of 3.9 K and a standard deviation of 0.45 K. Key Points Boundary cloud variations at seasonal and centennial scales are correlated Boundary cloud seasonal response is correlated with sensitivity Observations suggest a higher climate sensitivity than multimodel mean © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84946549097&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065911&partnerID=40&md5=31e6ebf841ccbbb28a0da29b35c496f3
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9223
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhai C.,Jiang J.H.,Su H.. Long-term cloud change imprinted in seasonal cloud variation: More evidence of high climate sensitivity[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(20).