DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071442
论文题名: Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans
作者: Brown P.T. ; Li W. ; Jiang J.H. ; Su H.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8306
EISSN: 1944-8037
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 24 起始页码: 12543
结束页码: 12549
语种: 英语
英文关键词: air-sea interaction
; climate models
; decadal variability
; global mean temperature
; internal variability
; unforced variability
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Global warming
; Oceanography
; Sea ice
; Air sea interactions
; Decadal variability
; Global-mean temperature
; Internal variability
; Unforced variability
; Climate models
英文摘要: Unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature can obscure or exaggerate global warming on interdecadal time scales; thus, understanding both the magnitude and generating mechanisms of such variability is of critical importance for both attribution studies as well as decadal climate prediction. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (climate models) simulate a wide range of magnitudes of unforced interdecadal variability in global mean surface air temperature (UITglobal), hampering efforts to quantify the influence of UITglobal on contemporary global temperature trends. Recently, a preliminary consensus has emerged that unforced interdecadal variability in local surface temperatures (UITlocal) over the tropical Pacific Ocean is particularly influential on UITglobal. Therefore, a reasonable hypothesis might be that the large spread in the magnitude of UITglobal across climate models can be explained by the spread in the magnitude of simulated tropical Pacific UITlocal. Here we show that this hypothesis is mostly false. Instead, the spread in the magnitude of UITglobal is linked much more strongly to the spread in the magnitude of UITlocal over high-latitude regions characterized by significant variability in oceanic convection, sea ice concentration, and energy flux at both the surface and the top of the atmosphere. Thus, efforts to constrain the climate model produced range of UITglobal magnitude would be best served by focusing on the simulation of air-sea interaction at high latitudes. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85007306699&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL071442&partnerID=40&md5=e0734ba1121ffd47c0b4591ea3017226
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9269
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Brown P.T.,Li W.,Jiang J.H.,et al. Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(24).