DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071396
论文题名: Skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat and advance dates in a dynamical forecast system
作者: Sigmond M. ; Reader M.C. ; Flato G.M. ; Merryfield W.J. ; Tivy A.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8315
EISSN: 1944-8046
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 24 起始页码: 12457
结束页码: 12465
语种: 英语
英文关键词: sea ice
; seasonal prediction
Scopus关键词: Economics
; Forecasting
; Sea ice
; Ensemble modeling
; Forecast systems
; Ocean temperature
; Sea ice retreats
; Seasonal forecasts
; Seasonal prediction
; Skill evaluation
; Socio-economic benefits
; Ice
英文摘要: The need for skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice is rapidly increasing. Technology to perform such forecasts with coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice systems has only recently become available, with previous skill evaluations mainly limited to area-integrated quantities. Here we show, based on a large set of retrospective ensemble model forecasts, that a dynamical forecast system produces skillful seasonal forecasts of local sea ice retreat and advance dates—variables that are of great interest to a wide range of end users. Advance dates can generally be skillfully predicted at longer lead times (~5 months on average) than retreat dates (~3 months). The skill of retreat date forecasts mainly stems from persistence of initial sea ice anomalies, whereas advance date forecasts benefit from longer time scale and more predictable variability in ocean temperatures. These results suggest that further investments in the development of dynamical seasonal forecast systems may result in significant socioeconomic benefits. ©2016. Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85007369604&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL071396&partnerID=40&md5=84261e43e97e1fa60ffe9f0bfefe1c52
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9278
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Sigmond M.,Reader M.C.,Flato G.M.,et al. Skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat and advance dates in a dynamical forecast system[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(24).