DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070457
论文题名: Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting
作者: Bakker P. ; Schmittner A. ; Lenaerts J.T.M. ; Abe-Ouchi A. ; Bi D. ; van den Broeke M.R. ; Chan W.-L. ; Hu A. ; Beadling R.L. ; Marsland S.J. ; Mernild S.H. ; Saenko O.A. ; Swingedouw D. ; Sullivan A. ; Yin J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8322
EISSN: 1944-8053
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 23 起始页码: 12252
结束页码: 12260
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
; climate change
; general circulation model
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Melting
; Uncertainty analysis
; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations
; General circulation model
; Greenhouse gas mitigation
; Greenland
; Greenland Ice Sheet
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Mass loss
; Probabilistic uncertainty
; Oceanography
英文摘要: The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state-of-the-science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090–2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [−3%, −34%; 90% probability] in an intermediate greenhouse-gas mitigation scenario and by 37% [−15%, −65%] under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to −74% [+4%, −100%] by 2290–2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation. ©2016. American Geophysical Union and Her Majesty The Queen in Right of Canada. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of the Environment, Canada. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85006788871&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070457&partnerID=40&md5=9ef179f6e7106f80352badf4a9d900b4
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9285
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: College or Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bakker P.,Schmittner A.,Lenaerts J.T.M.,et al. Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(23).