globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071423
论文题名:
Visualizing and verifying probabilistic forecasts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
作者: Marshall A.G.; Hendon H.H.; Hudson D.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8334
EISSN: 1944-8065
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期:23
起始页码: 12278
结束页码: 12286
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Madden-Julian Oscillation ; probabilistic forecast ; probabilistic verification ; real-time monitoring ; Real-time Multivariate MJO index
Scopus关键词: Forecasting ; Probability ; Weather forecasting ; Madden-Julian oscillation ; Probabilistic forecasts ; Probabilistic verification ; Real time ; Real time monitoring ; Climatology
英文摘要: We describe a new approach for presenting probabilistic forecasts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) based on the community standard Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, using forecasts from version 2 of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia. This new display overcomes the difficulty of interpreting a dispersive ensemble plume and directly quantifies the probability for the MJO to occur in each of its eight RMM-defined phases as well as the weak phase. Beyond monitoring and interpreting predictions of the MJO, this new approach also provides a basis for forecast verification using probability-based skill scores. Here we present a clear and concise quantitative summary of this innovative method for accessing probability of the state of the MJO in an ensemble forecast. This new method compliments the traditional MJO ensemble forecast display and verification and will benefit global forecasting centers, international MJO working groups, and the World Meteorological Organization Subseasonal to Seasonal Project. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85007502599&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL071423&partnerID=40&md5=c1f3fdd87fecf42d6c051f5606621ddd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9297
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, TAS, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Marshall A.G.,Hendon H.H.,Hudson D.. Visualizing and verifying probabilistic forecasts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(23).
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