DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070868
论文题名: River-discharge dynamics in the Southern Central Andes and the 1976–77 global climate shift
作者: Castino F. ; Bookhagen B. ; Strecker M.R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8371
EISSN: 1944-8102
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 22 起始页码: 11679
结束页码: 11687
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Central Andes
; change-point analysis
; climate shift
; extreme events
; quantile regression
; river discharge
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Flood control
; Floods
; Risk assessment
; Risk management
; Rivers
; Central Andes
; Change-point analysis
; Climate shifts
; Extreme events
; Quantile regression
; River discharge
; Climate change
英文摘要: Recent studies have shown that the 1976–77 global climate shift strongly affected the South American climate. In our study, we observed a link between this climate shift and river-discharge variability in the subtropical Southern Central Andes. We analyzed the daily river-discharge time series between 1940 and 1999 from small to medium mountain drainage basins (102–104 km2) across a steep climatic and topographic gradient. We document that the discharge frequency distribution changed significantly, with higher percentiles exhibiting more pronounced trends. A change point between 1971 and 1977 marked an intensification of the hydrological cycle, which resulted in increased river discharge. In the upper Rio Bermejo basin of the northernmost Argentine Andes, the mean annual discharge increased by 40% over 7 years. Our findings are important for flood risk management in areas impacted by the 1976–77 climate shift; discharge frequency distribution analysis provides important insights into the variability of the hydrological cycle in the Andean realm. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85002839894&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070868&partnerID=40&md5=fa3a2e1950a606969ce1b7eb417042a4
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9334
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften, Universität Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Castino F.,Bookhagen B.,Strecker M.R.. River-discharge dynamics in the Southern Central Andes and the 1976–77 global climate shift[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(22).