DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070735
论文题名: Diagnostic sea ice predictability in the pan-Arctic and U.S. Arctic regional seas
作者: Cheng W. ; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E. ; Bitz C.M. ; Ladd C. ; Stabeno P.J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8372
EISSN: 1944-8103
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 22 起始页码: 11688
结束页码: 11696
语种: 英语
英文关键词: predictability
; regional
; sea ice
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Sea ice
; Assimilation system
; Changing climate
; Data assimilation
; Earth system model
; Forecast systems
; Predictability
; Regional
; Regional differences
; Ice
英文摘要: This study assesses sea ice predictability in the pan-Arctic and U.S. Arctic regional (Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort) seas with a purpose of understanding regional differences from the pan-Arctic perspective and how predictability might change under changing climate. Lagged correlation is derived using existing output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System, and NOAA Coupled Forecast System Reanalysis models. While qualitatively similar, quantitative differences exist in Arctic ice area lagged correlation in models with or without data assimilation. On regional scales, modeled ice area lagged correlations are strongly location and season dependent. A robust feature in the CESM-LE is that the pan-Arctic melt-to-freeze season ice area memory intensifies, whereas the freeze-to-melt season memory weakens as climate warms, but there are across-region variations in the sea ice predictability changes with changing climate. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85003758686&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070735&partnerID=40&md5=c95c3ea90722395df2b6d477feea3293
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9335
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Cheng W.,Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E.,Bitz C.M.,et al. Diagnostic sea ice predictability in the pan-Arctic and U.S. Arctic regional seas[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(22).