DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071320
论文题名: ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation
作者: Lavers D.A. ; Pappenberger F. ; Richardson D.S. ; Zsoter E.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8385
EISSN: 1944-8116
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 22 起始页码: 11852
结束页码: 11858
语种: 英语
英文关键词: atmospheric rivers
; ensemble forecasts
; Extreme Forecast Index
; heavy precipitation
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Atmospheric pressure
; Forecasting
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rivers
; Storms
; Water resources
; Water vapor
; Ensemble forecasts
; European centre for medium-range weather forecasts
; Extratropical cyclones
; Extreme Forecast Index
; Extreme precipitation
; Heavy precipitation
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Water vapor transport
; Weather forecasting
英文摘要: In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities. ©2016. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85003443598&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL071320&partnerID=40&md5=734166cfb189a15dd8505c2790e85267
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9348
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Lavers D.A.,Pappenberger F.,Richardson D.S.,et al. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(22).