DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070847
论文题名: Modes of hurricane activity variability in the eastern Pacific: Implications for the 2016 season
作者: Boucharel J. ; Jin F.-F. ; England M.H. ; Lin I.I.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8415
EISSN: 1944-8146
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 21 起始页码: 11358
结束页码: 11366
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO
; hurricane forecasts
; ocean heat content
; seasonal forecasts
; tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Nickel
; Orthogonal functions
; Regression analysis
; Storms
; Weather forecasting
; Wind effects
; Accumulated cyclone energies
; Eastern equatorial Pacific
; Empirical orthogonal function decompositions
; ENSO
; Environmental variables
; Ocean heat content
; Seasonal forecasts
; Tropical cyclone
; Hurricanes
英文摘要: A gridded product of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the eastern Pacific is constructed to assess the dominant mode of tropical cyclone (TC) activity variability. Results of an empirical orthogonal function decomposition and regression analysis of environmental variables indicate that the two dominant modes of ACE variability (40% of the total variance) are related to different flavors of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The first mode, more active during the later part of the hurricane season (September–November), is linked to the eastern Pacific El Niño through the delayed oceanic control associated with the recharge-discharge mechanism. The second mode, dominant in the early months of the hurricane season, is related to the central Pacific El Niño mode and the associated changes in atmospheric variability. A multilinear regression forecast model of the dominant principal components of ACE variability is then constructed. The wintertime subsurface state of the eastern equatorial Pacific (characterizing ENSO heat discharge), the east-west tilt of the thermocline (describing ENSO phase transition), the anomalous ocean surface conditions in the TC region in spring (portraying atmospheric changes induced by persistence of local surface anomalies), and the intraseasonal atmospheric variability in the western Pacific are found to be good predictors of TC activity. Results complement NOAA's official forecast by providing additional spatial and temporal information. They indicate a more active 2016 season (~2 times the ACE mean) with a spatial expansion into the central Pacific associated with the heat discharge from the 2015/2016 El Niño. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84998953747&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070847&partnerID=40&md5=bd8a5a43a39c50d92ffe27b619f42ae7
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9378
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Boucharel J.,Jin F.-F.,England M.H.,et al. Modes of hurricane activity variability in the eastern Pacific: Implications for the 2016 season[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(21).