DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070105
论文题名: Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America
作者: Coats S. ; Smerdon J.E. ; Cook B.I. ; Seager R. ; Cook E.R. ; Anchukaitis K.J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8637
EISSN: 1944-8368
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 18 起始页码: 9886
结束页码: 9894
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO
; internal variability
; MCA
; megadroughts
; Southwest
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Drought
; Oceanography
; Tropics
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; ENSO
; Internal variability
; Medieval climate anomalies
; Megadroughts
; Ocean atmosphere variability
; Southwest
; Tree-ring reconstruction
; Climate models
英文摘要: Multidecadal droughts that occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly represent an important target for validating the ability of climate models to adequately characterize drought risk over the near-term future. A prominent hypothesis is that these megadroughts were driven by a centuries-long radiatively forced shift in the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here we use a novel combination of spatiotemporal tree ring reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate to infer the atmosphere-ocean dynamics that coincide with megadroughts over the American West and find that these features are consistently associated with 10–30 year periods of frequent cold El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions and not a centuries-long shift in the mean of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results suggest an important role for internal variability in driving past megadroughts. State-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, however, do not simulate a consistent association between megadroughts and internal variability of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with implications for our confidence in megadrought risk projections. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84990223974&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070105&partnerID=40&md5=e0a5e39dad302250b5733be40fee25ae
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9600
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Coats S.,Smerdon J.E.,Cook B.I.,et al. Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(18).