globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069555
论文题名:
Confidence intervals for time averages in the presence of long-range correlations, a case study on Earth surface temperature anomalies
作者: Massah M.; Kantz H.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8655
EISSN: 1944-8386
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期:17
起始页码: 9243
结束页码: 9249
语种: 英语
英文关键词: confidence intervals ; Earth surface temperature series ; long-range correlation ; time averages
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Climate change ; Large scale systems ; Random processes ; Stochastic systems ; Surface properties ; Temperature measurement ; Uncertainty analysis ; Confidence interval ; Earth surface temperature ; Environmental data ; Gaussian stochastic process ; Long range correlations ; Quantitative result ; Surface temperature measurement ; Time averages ; Financial data processing
英文摘要: Time averages, a standard tool in the analysis of environmental data, suffer severely from long-range correlations. The sample size needed to obtain a desired small confidence interval can be dramatically larger than for uncorrelated data. We present quantitative results for short- and long-range correlated Gaussian stochastic processes. Using these, we calculate confidence intervals for time averages of surface temperature measurements. Temperature time series are well known to be long-range correlated with Hurst exponents larger than 1/2. Multidecadal time averages are routinely used in the study of climate change. Our analysis shows that uncertainties of such averages are as large as for a single year of uncorrelated data. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84988980310&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069555&partnerID=40&md5=4ab0997527bb45ef5dbd58207c3c33f7
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9618
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Massah M.,Kantz H.. Confidence intervals for time averages in the presence of long-range correlations, a case study on Earth surface temperature anomalies[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(17).
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Massah M.]'s Articles
[Kantz H.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Massah M.]'s Articles
[Kantz H.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Massah M.]‘s Articles
[Kantz H.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.