DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070634
论文题名: Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models
作者: Ramos A.M. ; Tomé R. ; Trigo R.M. ; Liberato M.L.R. ; Pinto J.G.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8656
EISSN: 1944-8387
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 17 起始页码: 9315
结束页码: 9323
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric Rivers
; climate projections
; CMIP5 models
; Europe
; extratropical cyclones
; precipitation
Scopus关键词: Floods
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Rivers
; Storms
; Atmospheric moisture content
; Climate projection
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Europe
; Extratropical cyclones
; Global climate model
; Iberian Peninsula
; Intense precipitation
; Climate models
; air temperature
; atmospheric moisture
; climate conditions
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; concentration (composition)
; flood
; global climate
; midlatitude environment
; precipitation (climatology)
; spatiotemporal analysis
; tropical cyclone
; water vapor
; Iberian Peninsula
; Scandinavia
; Western Europe
英文摘要: Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are elongated bands of high water vapor concentration extending to the midlatitudes, which can be associated with intense precipitation and floods over continental areas. We analyze ARs reaching Europe in simulations from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) to quantify possible changes during the current century, with emphasis in five western European prone coastal areas. ARs are represented reasonably well in GCMs for recent climate conditions (1980–2005). Increased vertically integrated horizontal water transport is found for 2074–2099 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) compared to 1980–2005, while the number of ARs is projected to double on average for the same period. These changes are robust between models and are associated with higher air temperatures and thus enhanced atmospheric moisture content, together with higher precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones. This suggests an increased risk of intense precipitation and floods along the Atlantic European Coasts from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84987668137&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070634&partnerID=40&md5=a6c89d73352fa4d4e6f49cf17a557ced
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9619
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Recommended Citation:
Ramos A.M.,Tomé R.,Trigo R.M.,et al. Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(17).