DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070587
论文题名: Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty
作者: Bittner M. ; Schmidt H. ; Timmreck C. ; Sienz F.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8688
EISSN: 1944-8419
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 17 起始页码: 9324
结束页码: 9332
语种: 英语
英文关键词: internal variability
; large ensemble
; polar vortex
; volcanic eruptions
Scopus关键词: Uncertainty analysis
; Volcanoes
; Vortex flow
; Coupled climate model
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Internal variability
; large ensemble
; Max Planck Institute
; Northern Hemispheres
; Polar vortex
; Volcanic eruptions
; Climate models
英文摘要: The observed strengthening of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar vortex after tropical volcanic eruptions appears to be underestimated by coupled climate models. However, there are only a limited number of observed eruptions, which makes the attribution of volcanic signals difficult, because the polar vortex is also influenced by other external forcing factors as well as internal variability. We show with a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850–2005) simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model that an ensemble larger than what is provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is needed to detect a statistically significant NH polar vortex strengthening. The most robust signal can be found when only the two strongest eruptions (Krakatau and Pinatubo) are considered in contrast to including smaller eruptions to increase the sample size. For these two strongest eruptions, the mean of 15 CMIP5 models shows a statistically significant strengthening of the NH polar vortex as well. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84988911486&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070587&partnerID=40&md5=19c2dd8d676c93216dd0a43428e29579
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9651
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Bittner M.,Schmidt H.,Timmreck C.,et al. Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(17).