DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070445
论文题名: The challenge of accurately quantifying future megadrought risk in the American Southwest
作者: Coats S. ; Mankin J.S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8700
EISSN: 1944-8431
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 17 起始页码: 9225
结束页码: 9233
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate
; drought
; hydroclimate
; megadrought
; North America
; projections
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Drought
; Climate
; Hydroclimate
; Megadrought
; North America
; Projections
; Risk assessment
英文摘要: American Southwest (ASW) megadroughts represent decadal-scale periods of dry conditions the near-term risks of which arise from natural low-frequency hydroclimate variability and anthropogenic forcing. A large single-climate-model ensemble indicates that anthropogenic forcing increases near-term ASW megadrought risk by a factor of 100; however, accurate risk assessment remains a challenge. At the global-scale we find that anthropogenic forcing may alter the variability driving megadroughts over 55% of land areas, undermining accurate assessments of their risk. For the remaining areas, current ensembles are too small to characterize megadroughts' driving variability. For example, constraining uncertainty in near-term ASW megadrought risk to 5 percentage points with high confidence requires 287 simulations. Such ensemble sizes are beyond current computational and storage resources, and these limitations suggest that constraining errors in near-term megadrought risk projections with high confidence—even in places where underlying variability is stationary—is not currently possible. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84988646164&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070445&partnerID=40&md5=f89e33c4adb2652867f3c7284a6483ed
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9663
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Coats S.,Mankin J.S.. The challenge of accurately quantifying future megadrought risk in the American Southwest[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(17).