DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070117
论文题名: Diagnosing United States hurricane landfall risk: An alternative to count-based methodologies
作者: Staehling E.M. ; Truchelut R.E.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8728
EISSN: 1944-8459
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 16 起始页码: 8798
结束页码: 8805
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate
; hurricanes
; landfall
; natural hazard
; tropical cyclones
; tropical meteorology
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Oceanography
; Public utilities
; Risk assessment
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Climate
; Landfall
; Natural hazard
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical meteorology
; Hurricanes
英文摘要: Assessing hurricane landfall risk is of immense public utility, yet extant methods of diagnosing annual tropical cyclone (TC) activity demonstrate no skill in diagnosing U.S. hurricane landfalls. Atlantic TC count itself has limited skill, explaining less than 20% of interannual variance in landfall incidence. Using extended landfall activity and reanalysis data sets, we employed empirical Poisson modeling to produce a landfall diagnostic index (LDI), incorporating spatially and temporally averaged upper level divergence, relative sea surface temperature, meridional wind, and zonal shear vorticity. LDI captures 31% of interannual variability of U.S. hurricane landfalls and offers physical insight into why indices that successfully capture TC activity fail to diagnose landfalls: there is inherent tension between conditions likely to steer hurricanes toward the U.S. and conditions favorable for TC development. Given this tension, attempting to diagnose, predict, or understand TC count is inadequate for quantifying societal impacts due to landfalling hurricanes. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84983735458&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL070117&partnerID=40&md5=77e2db9c58d44330f5548f59ee6c4518
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9691
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Research and Development Division, WeatherTiger, LLC, Tallahassee, FL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Staehling E.M.,Truchelut R.E.. Diagnosing United States hurricane landfall risk: An alternative to count-based methodologies[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(16).