| DOI: | 10.1002/2016GL068950
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| 论文题名: | The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate |
| 作者: | Sévellec F.; Sinha B.; Skliris N.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8825
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| EISSN: | 1944-8556
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 43, 期:15 | | 起始页码: | 8169
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| 结束页码: | 8177
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | global warming hiatus
; global warming surge
; multimodel analysis
; probabilistic analysis
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Carbon dioxide
; Global warming
; Decadal variability
; Future climate scenarios
; Global surface temperature
; Modelling capabilities
; Multi-model
; Probabilistic analysis
; Radiative forcings
; Surface air temperatures
; Climate models
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| 英文摘要: | The nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade-long slowdown in surface warming, the so-called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here surface air temperature from 20 climate models is analyzed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and “surges” (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a “business as usual” scenario. For “CO2 stabilisation” scenarios, hiatus, and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st century and future reoccurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability. ©2016. The Authors. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84982958700&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL068950&partnerID=40&md5=6a5513c7db09843a9bf15106b62f16a2
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9788
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Sévellec F.,Sinha B.,Skliris N.. The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(15).
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