DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069453
论文题名: The impact of the Southern Annular Mode on future changes in Southern Hemisphere rainfall
作者: Lim E.-P. ; Hendon H.H. ; Arblaster J.M. ; Delage F. ; Nguyen H. ; Min S.-K. ; Wheeler M.C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8915
EISSN: 1944-8646
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 13 起始页码: 7160
结束页码: 7167
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; RCP8.5
; Souther Hemisphere rainfall
; Southern Annular Mode
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Tropics
; Austral summers
; CMIP5
; High Latitudes
; RCP8.5
; Southern Annular Mode
; Southern Hemisphere
; Southern oscillation
; Two-component
; Rain
英文摘要: A robust positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is projected for the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, which results in rainfall decreases in the midlatitudes and increases in the high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We find that this SAM trend also increases rainfall over the SH subtropics in austral summer but not in winter, leading to a pronounced wintertime poleward expansion of the subtropical dry zone. These dynamically driven rainfall changes by the SAM appear to oppose the thermodynamically driven projected rainfall changes in the SH subtropics and midlatitudes, whereas the two components reinforce each other in the high latitudes. However, we show that most climate models fall short in capturing the observed SAM component driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and associated rainfall in the austral warm seasons, which limits our confidence in quantifying the contribution of the SAM to projected rainfall changes. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84979937210&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069453&partnerID=40&md5=c978b838b17e9c6afa3301fe1ad51433
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9878
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Lim E.-P.,Hendon H.H.,Arblaster J.M.,et al. The impact of the Southern Annular Mode on future changes in Southern Hemisphere rainfall[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(13).