DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069563
论文题名: What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?
作者: Sanderson B.M. ; O'Neill B.C. ; Tebaldi C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8934
EISSN: 1944-8665
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 13 起始页码: 7133
结束页码: 7142
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate
; emissions
; targets
Scopus关键词: Carbon
; Carbon dioxide
; Greenhouse gases
; Particulate emissions
; Targets
; Carbon removal
; Climate
; Pre-industrial levels
; Gas emissions
英文摘要: The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 2 or 1.5°C above preindustrial level, although combined Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are likely insufficient to achieve these targets. We propose a set of idealized emission pathways consistent with the targets. If countries reduce emissions in line with their INDCs, the 2°C threshold could be avoided only if net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are achieved by 2085 and late century negative emissions are considerably in excess of those assumed in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (net −5 Gt CO2/yr, compared with −1.5 Gt CO2/yr in RCP2.6). More aggressive near-term reductions would allow 2°C to be avoided with less end-of-century carbon removal capacity. A 10% cut in GHGEs by 2030 (relative to 2015) could likely achieve 2°C with RCP2.6 level negative emissions. The 1.5°C target requires GHGEs to be reduced by almost a third by 2030 and net zero by 2050, while a 50 year overshoot of 1.5°C allows net zero GHGEs by 2060. ©2016. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84978055821&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069563&partnerID=40&md5=18b0339b39aa930c7464420e48cc983e
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9897
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Sanderson B.M.,O'Neill B.C.,Tebaldi C.. What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(13).