DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.08.008
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85051793641
论文题名: Responses of the hydrological regime to variations in meteorological factors under climate change of the Tibetan plateau
作者: Zhong R. ; He Y. ; Chen X.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2018
卷: 214 起始页码: 296
结束页码: 310
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; GCM
; Lancang River basin
; Meteorological factor
; Response of hydrology
; Tibetan plateau
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Floods
; Rivers
; Snow
; Snow melting systems
; Stream flow
; Watersheds
; Distributed hydrological model
; Lancang River
; Meteorological factors
; Multi-model ensemble
; Precipitation change
; Snow water equivalent
; Tibetan Plateau
; Variable infiltration capacities
; Climate change
; air temperature
; climate change
; CMIP
; general circulation model
; hydrological cycle
; hydrological modeling
; hydrological regime
; precipitation intensity
; river basin
; snow
; streamflow
; China
; Mekong River
; Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
英文摘要: Meteorological factors and the hydrologic cycle of the Tibetan plateau (TP) significantly influence the water resource supply, ecology, and social economy of wide downstream areas in Asia. This study evaluates changes in meteorological factors (e.g., precipitation, air temperature, and snowfall) and corresponding responses in the hydrological regime under future climate change scenarios in both the TP and the downstream areas. The Lancang River basin (LRB), located in the southeast TP and known as the upper Mekong River basin, is selected as the case study area. Future climate change projections are derived from five independent GCMs of CMIP5 and their multi-model ensemble. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) distributed hydrological model is used to generate streamflow projections in future scenarios. Results show that precipitation and air temperature in both the lower LRB (representing the downstream area of TP) and upper LRB (representing the area in TP) are expected to increase substantially in the future, with higher increments in air temperature found in the upper LRB under high-emission scenarios. Snowfall, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snowmelt are commonly found to decrease with increasing air temperature, and the snow melt time tends to be earlier. Significantly increasing mean and extreme streamflow caused by increasing precipitation are anticipated in the future. The low flow shows much higher relative increments at the upstream of TP, which is mainly caused by changes in snow regulating (decreased snowfall and earlier snowmelt). However, those effects show weak influence on the streamflow in the downstream area, which would be more largely impact by the local precipitation change. In the future, irrigation, hydropower, and navigation in the TP could benefit from increased low flow in the TP, but the consistently increasing extreme high flow may indicate greater flood risk in the TP and downstream areas. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/108736
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Center for Water Resources and Environment Research, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhong R.,He Y.,Chen X.. Responses of the hydrological regime to variations in meteorological factors under climate change of the Tibetan plateau[J]. Atmospheric Research,2018-01-01,214