DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.09.019
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85053783019
论文题名: Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation
作者: Pop L. ; Sokol Z. ; Minářová J.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2019
卷: 216 起始页码: 1
结束页码: 10
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Extrapolation
; Forestry
; Mean square error
; Radar
; Reflection
; Bootstrap technique
; Central Europe
; Czech Republic
; Ensemble trees
; Logistic regressions
; Precipitation threshold
; Probability forecasts
; Radar reflectivities
; Forecasting
; bootstrapping
; ensemble forecasting
; nowcasting
; precipitation (climatology)
; probability
; radar
; Czech Republic
英文摘要: The study presents a new method nowcasting precipitation called the Ensemble Tree Method (ETM), which gives probability forecast of accumulated precipitation based on the extrapolation of radar reflectivity. ETM combines a tree model with a Bootstrap technique. It forecasts the probability that the hourly accumulated precipitation exceeds a given threshold for cells of 3 by 3 km size. ETM was tested using radar reflectivity data from July 2012 in a domain of 489 km by 291 km covering the Czech Republic (Central Europe). While forecasting, we considered a lead time of up to 180 min having a time step of 30 min and four precipitation thresholds (0.1, 1.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm). ETM provided us forecasts of the probability of exceeding an hourly precipitation threshold from 0 to 60 min, 30 to 90 min, …, and 120 to 180 min. The performance of ETM was assessed using a skill score derived from the mean-square-error, and was compared with the performance of forecasts based on a logistic regression that was used as reference forecast. We demonstrated that the prediction of ETM is better than that of the reference forecast. The main advantage of ETM is that the ETM reflects the uncertainty of forecast better as compared to the overconfident reference forecasts, which is particularly true for the higher precipitation thresholds. Thus, despite low predicted probabilities, the forecasts given by ETM seem more realistic. © 2018 Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109037
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bocni II, 1401, Prague, 141 31, Czech Republic
Recommended Citation:
Pop L.,Sokol Z.,Minářová J.. Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation[J]. Atmospheric Research,2019-01-01,216