globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.09.019
Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85053783019
Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation
Author: Pop L.; Sokol Z.; Minářová J.
Source Publication: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
Publishing Year: 2019
Volume: 216
pages begin: 1
pages end: 10
Language: 英语
Scopus Keyword: Extrapolation ; Forestry ; Mean square error ; Radar ; Reflection ; Bootstrap technique ; Central Europe ; Czech Republic ; Ensemble trees ; Logistic regressions ; Precipitation threshold ; Probability forecasts ; Radar reflectivities ; Forecasting ; bootstrapping ; ensemble forecasting ; nowcasting ; precipitation (climatology) ; probability ; radar ; Czech Republic
English Abstract: The study presents a new method nowcasting precipitation called the Ensemble Tree Method (ETM), which gives probability forecast of accumulated precipitation based on the extrapolation of radar reflectivity. ETM combines a tree model with a Bootstrap technique. It forecasts the probability that the hourly accumulated precipitation exceeds a given threshold for cells of 3 by 3 km size. ETM was tested using radar reflectivity data from July 2012 in a domain of 489 km by 291 km covering the Czech Republic (Central Europe). While forecasting, we considered a lead time of up to 180 min having a time step of 30 min and four precipitation thresholds (0.1, 1.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm). ETM provided us forecasts of the probability of exceeding an hourly precipitation threshold from 0 to 60 min, 30 to 90 min, …, and 120 to 180 min. The performance of ETM was assessed using a skill score derived from the mean-square-error, and was compared with the performance of forecasts based on a logistic regression that was used as reference forecast. We demonstrated that the prediction of ETM is better than that of the reference forecast. The main advantage of ETM is that the ETM reflects the uncertainty of forecast better as compared to the overconfident reference forecasts, which is particularly true for the higher precipitation thresholds. Thus, despite low predicted probabilities, the forecasts given by ETM seem more realistic. © 2018
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被引频次[WOS]:1   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
Document Type: 期刊论文
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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Affiliation: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bocni II, 1401, Prague, 141 31, Czech Republic

Recommended Citation:
Pop L.,Sokol Z.,Minářová J.. Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation[J]. Atmospheric Research,2019-01-01,216
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