DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0283.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052926379
论文题名: Decadal variability of Great Lakes ice cover in response to AMO and PDO, 1963-2017
作者: Wang J. ; Kessler J. ; Bai X. ; Clites A. ; Lofgren B. ; Assuncao A. ; Bratton J. ; Chu P. ; Leshkevich G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 18 起始页码: 7249
结束页码: 7268
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
; Decadal variability
; Ice loss/growth
; North America
; Regression analysis
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Lakes
; Regression analysis
; Surface properties
; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
; Climate variability
; Decadal variability
; Ice loss/growth
; Lake surface temperature
; North America
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Ice
英文摘要: In this study, decadal variability of ice cover in the Great Lakes is investigated using historical airborne and satellite measurements from 1963 to 2017. It was found that Great Lakes ice cover has 1) a linear relationship with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), similar to the relationship of lake ice cover with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but with stronger impact than NAO; 2) a quadratic relationship with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), which is similar to the relationship of lake ice cover to Niño-3.4, but with opposite curvature; and 3) decadal variability with a positive (warming) trend in AMO contributes to the decreasing trend in lake ice cover. Composite analyses show that during the positive (negative) phase of AMO, the Great Lakes experience a warm (cold) anomaly in surface air temperature (SAT) and lake surface temperature (LST), leading to less (more) ice cover. During the positive (negative) phase of PDO, the Great Lakes experience a cold (warm) anomaly in SAT and LST, leading to more (less) ice cover. Based on these statistical relationships, the original multiple variable regression model established using the indices of NAO and Niño- 3.4 only was improved by adding bothAMOand PDO, as well as their interference (interacting or competing) mechanism. With theAMOand PDO added, the correlation between the model and observation increases to 0.69, compared to 0.48 using NAO and Niño-3.4 only. When November lake surface temperature was further added to the regression model, the prediction skill of the coming winter ice cover increased even more. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111400
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Hohai University, Nanjing, China; LimnoTech, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Wang J.,Kessler J.,Bai X.,et al. Decadal variability of Great Lakes ice cover in response to AMO and PDO, 1963-2017[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(18)