DOI: 10.3354/cr01335
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945553056
论文题名: Integrated modelling of protein crop production responses to climate change and agricultural policy scenarios in Austria
作者: Mitter H. ; Schmid E. ; Sinabell F.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2015
卷: 65 起始页码: 205
结束页码: 220
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Adaptation
; Climate change impact
; Common Agricultural Policy
; EPIC
; Land use
; Soybean
Scopus关键词: adaptive management
; agricultural policy
; biophysics
; climate change
; crop rotation
; crop yield
; fertilizer application
; integrated approach
; land use change
; optimization
; protein
; soybean
; Austria
; Glycine max
; Zea mays
英文摘要: Climate and policy changes are likely to affect protein crop production and thus trade balances in Europe, which is highly dependent on imports. Exemplified for Austrian cropland, we developed an integrated modelling framework to analyze climate change and policy scenario impacts on protein crop production and environmental outcomes. The integrated modelling framework consists of a statistical climate change model, a crop rotation model, the biophysical process model EPIC, and the economic bottom-up land use optimization model BiomAT. EPIC is applied to simulate annual dry matter crop yields for different crop management practices including crop rotations, fertilization intensities, and irrigation, as well as for 3 regional climate change scenarios until 2040 at a 1 km grid resolution. BiomAT maximizes total gross margins by optimizing land use choices and crop management practices subject to spatially explicit cropland endowments. The model results indicate that changes in agricultural policy conditions, cropland use, and higher flexibility in crop management practices may reduce protein import dependence under changing climatic conditions. Expanding protein crop production is most attractive in south-eastern Austria with its Central European continental climate where maize is most often replaced in crop rotations. However, the acreage of protein crops is limited by agronomically suitable cropland. An intended side effect is the reduction of nitrogen fertilizer inputs by about 0.1% if total protein crop production increases by 1%. © Inter-Research 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116470
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Mitter H.,Schmid E.,Sinabell F.. Integrated modelling of protein crop production responses to climate change and agricultural policy scenarios in Austria[J]. Climate Research,2015-01-01,65