DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0766.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85059630049
论文题名: Skill of seasonal Arctic sea ice extent predictions using the North American Multimodel Ensemble
作者: Harnos K.J. ; L'Heureux M. ; Ding Q. ; Zhang Q.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期: 2 起始页码: 623
结束页码: 638
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate prediction
; Climate prediction
; Numerical weather prediction/forecasting
; Sea ice
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Sea ice
; Weather forecasting
; Climate prediction
; Individual modeling
; Individual models
; Multi-model approaches
; Multi-model ensemble
; Multiple-modeling
; Numerical weather prediction/forecasting
; Seasonal climate prediction
; Climate models
; climate prediction
; ensemble forecasting
; sea ice
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: Previous studies have outlined benefits of using multiple model platforms to make seasonal climate predictions. Here, reforecasts from five models included in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project are utilized to determine skill in predicting Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) during 1982-2010.Overall, relative to the individual models, the multimodel average results in generally smaller biases and better correlations for predictions of total SIEand year-to-year (Y2Y), linearly, and quadratically detrended variability.Also notable is the increase in error for NMME predictions of total September SIE during the mid-1990s through 2000s. After 2000, observed September SIE is characterized bymore significant negative trends and increased Y2Y variance, which suggests that recent sea ice loss is resulting in larger prediction errors.While this tendency is concerning, due to the possibility of models not accurately representing the changing trends in sea ice, the multimodel approach still shows promise in providing more skillful predictions of Arctic SIE over any individual model. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117250
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Harnos K.J.,L'Heureux M.,Ding Q.,et al. Skill of seasonal Arctic sea ice extent predictions using the North American Multimodel Ensemble[J]. Journal of Climate,2019-01-01,32(2)