globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14542
Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85060619598
Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming
Author: Liu B.; Martre P.; Ewert F.; Porter J.R.; Challinor A.J.; Müller C.; Ruane A.C.; Waha K.; Thorburn P.J.; Aggarwal P.K.; Ahmed M.; Balkovič J.; Basso B.; Biernath C.; Bindi M.; Cammarano D.; De Sanctis G.; Dumont B.; Espadafor M.; Eyshi Rezaei E.; Ferrise R.; Garcia-Vila M.; Gayler S.; Gao Y.; Horan H.; Hoogenboom G.; Izaurralde R.C.; Jones C.D.; Kassie B.T.; Kersebaum K.C.; Klein C.; Koehler A.-K.; Maiorano A.; Minoli S.; Montesino San Martin M.; Naresh Kumar S.; Nendel C.; O’Leary G.J.; Palosuo T.; Priesack E.; Ripoche D.; Rötter R.P.; Semenov M.A.; Stöckle C.; Streck T.; Supit I.; Tao F.; Van der Velde M.; Wallach D.; Wang E.; Webber H.; Wolf J.; Xiao L.; Zhang Z.; Zhao Z.; Zhu Y.; Asseng S.
Source Publication: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
Publishing Year: 2019
Volume: 25, Issue:4
pages begin: 1428
pages end: 1444
Language: 英语
Keyword: 1.5°C warming ; climate change ; extreme low yields ; food security ; model ensemble ; wheat production
Scopus Keyword: Triticum aestivum
English Abstract: Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO 2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
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被引频次[WOS]:21   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
Document Type: 期刊论文
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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Recommended Citation:
Liu B.,Martre P.,Ewert F.,et al. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming[J]. Global Change Biology,2019-01-01,25(4)
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