DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2018.10.069
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85056611026
论文题名: Cryptosporidium concentrations in rivers worldwide
作者: Vermeulen L.C. ; van Hengel M. ; Kroeze C. ; Medema G. ; Spanier J.E. ; van Vliet M.T.H. ; Hofstra N.
刊名: Water Research
ISSN: 431354
出版年: 2019
起始页码: 202
结束页码: 214
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Global
; Model
; Pathogens
; Surface water
; Transport
; Water quality
Scopus关键词: Animals
; Binary alloys
; Developing countries
; Fertilizers
; Health risks
; Hydrology
; Manures
; Models
; Pathogens
; Potassium alloys
; Risk analysis
; Risk assessment
; Risk perception
; Rivers
; Sensitivity analysis
; Surface waters
; Uranium alloys
; Water quality
; Effective management
; Global
; Goodness-of-fit statistics
; Hydrological modeling
; Spatially explicit modeling
; Transport
; Variable infiltration capacity models
; Waterborne transmission
; River pollution
; surface water
; bacterium
; concentration (composition)
; disease transmission
; global change
; global perspective
; health risk
; infant mortality
; pathogen
; pollutant source
; public health
; river water
; scenario analysis
; surface water
; water quality
; waterborne disease
; Algeria
; Article
; Bangladesh
; Belgium
; Brazil
; China
; comprehension
; concentration (parameters)
; Cryptosporidium
; Eastern Europe
; feces
; geometry
; global change
; health hazard
; human
; hydrology
; India
; infant mortality
; Macedonia (republic)
; manure
; Mexico
; Middle East
; Nigeria
; nonhuman
; oocyst
; Pakistan
; priority journal
; productivity
; public health
; risk assessment
; river
; seashore
; sedimentation
; sensitivity analysis
; solar radiation
; South Africa
; statistical analysis
; temperature
; United Kingdom
; variable infiltration capacity model
; Venezuela
; water pollution
; water quality
; water residence time
; Western Europe
; Belgium
; Belgium
; Brazil
; Brussels [Belgium]
; China
; Europe
; Greece
; India
; Macedonia [Greece]
; Mexico [North America]
; Middle East
; Nigeria
; Pakistan
; South Africa
; Venezuela
; Animalia
; Cryptosporidium
英文摘要: Cryptosporidium is a leading cause of diarrhoea and infant mortality worldwide. A better understanding of the sources, fate and transport of Cryptosporidium via rivers is important for effective management of waterborne transmission, especially in the developing world. We present GloWPa-Crypto C1, the first global, spatially explicit model that computes Cryptosporidium concentrations in rivers, implemented on a 0.5 × 0.5° grid and monthly time step. To this end, we first modelled Cryptosporidium inputs to rivers from human faeces and animal manure. Next, we use modelled hydrology from a grid-based macroscale hydrological model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model). Oocyst transport through the river network is modelled using a routing model, accounting for temperature- and solar radiation-dependent decay and sedimentation along the way. Monthly average oocyst concentrations are predicted to range from 10−6 to 102 oocysts L−1 in most places. Critical regions (‘hotspots’) with high concentrations include densely populated areas in India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh, Nigeria, Algeria and South Africa, Mexico, Venezuela and some coastal areas of Brazil, several countries in Western and Eastern Europe (incl. The UK, Belgium and Macedonia), and the Middle East. Point sources (human faeces) appears to be a more dominant source of pollution than diffuse sources (mainly animal manure) in most world regions. Validation shows that GloWPa-Crypto medians are mostly within the range of observed concentrations. The model generally produces concentrations that are 1.5–2 log10 higher than the observations. This is likely predominantly due to the absence of recovery efficiency of the observations, which are therefore likely too low. Goodness of fit statistics are reasonable. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is most sensitive to changes in input oocyst loads. GloWPa-Crypto C1 paves the way for many new opportunities at the global scale, including scenario analysis to investigate the impact of global change and management options on oocysts concentrations in rivers, and risk analysis to investigate human health risk. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122155
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, WageningenAA 6700, Netherlands; Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, WageningenAA 6700, Netherlands; KWR Watercycle Research Institute, P.O. Box 1072, NieuwegeinBB 3430, Netherlands; Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, Delft, GA 2600, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Vermeulen L.C.,van Hengel M.,Kroeze C.,et al. Cryptosporidium concentrations in rivers worldwide[J]. Water Research,2019-01-01