DOI: 10.5194/cp-15-307-2019
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85061732028
论文题名: Inconsistencies between observed, reconstructed, and simulated precipitation indices for England since the year 1650 CE
作者: Bothe O. ; Wagner S. ; Zorita E.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2019
卷: 15, 期: 1 起始页码: 307
结束页码: 334
语种: 英语
英文摘要: The scarcity of long instrumental records, uncertainty in reconstructions, and insufficient skill in model simulations hamper assessing how regional precipitation changed over past centuries. Here, we use standardized precipitation data to compare a regional climate simulation, reconstructions, and long observational records of seasonal (March to July) mean precipitation in England and Wales over the past 350 years. The Standardized Precipitation Index is a valuable tool for assessing agreement between the different sources of information, as it allows for a comparison of the temporal evolution of percentiles of the precipitation distributions. These evolutions are not consistent among reconstructions, a regional simulation, and instrumental observations for severe and extreme dry and wet conditions. The lack of consistency between the different data sets may be due to the dominance of internal climate variability over the impact of natural exogenous forcing conditions on multi-decadal timescales. The disagreement between sources of information reduces our confidence in inferences about the origins of hydroclimate variability for small regions. However, it is encouraging that there is still some agreement between a regional simulation and observations. Our results emphasize the complexity of hydroclimate changes during the recent centuries and stress the necessity of a thorough understanding of the processes affecting forced and unforced precipitation variability. © 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122240
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht, 21502, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Bothe O.,Wagner S.,Zorita E.. Inconsistencies between observed, reconstructed, and simulated precipitation indices for England since the year 1650 CE[J]. Climate of the Past,2019-01-01,15(1)