globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4584-6
WOS记录号: WOS:000471722400017
论文题名:
Estimating daily climatological normals in a changing climate
作者: Rigal, Alix1,2; Azais, Jean-Marc3; Ribes, Aurelien1,2
通讯作者: Rigal, Alix
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 53, 期:1-2, 页码:275-286
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Daily climate normals ; Unbiased estimate ; Normals accounting for climate change ; Smoothing splines
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Climatological normals are widely used baselines for the description and the characterization of a given meteorological situation. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standard recommends estimating climatological normals as the average of observations over a 30-year period. This approach may lead to strongly biased normals in a changing climate. Here we propose a new method with which to estimate daily climatological normals in a non-stationary climate. Our statistical framework relies on the assumption that the response to climate change is smooth over time, and on a decomposition of the response inspired by the pattern scaling assumption. Estimation is carried out using smoothing splines techniques, with a careful examination of the selection of smoothing parameters. The new method is compared, in a predictive sense and in a perfect model framework, to previously proposed alternatives such as the WMO standard (reset either on a decadal or annual basis), averages over shorter periods, and hinge fits. Results show that our technique outperforms all alternatives considered. They confirm that previously proposed techniques are substantially biasedbiases are typically as large as a few tenths to more than 1C by the end of the centurywhile our method is not. We argue that such climate change corrected normals might be very useful for climate monitoring, and that weather services could consider using two different sets of normals (i.e. both stationary and non-stationary) for different purposes.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125242
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Meteo France, CNRM, UMR3589, Toulouse, France
2.CNRS, Toulouse, France
3.Univ Paul Sabatier, Inst Math, F-31062 Toulouse 09, France

Recommended Citation:
Rigal, Alix,Azais, Jean-Marc,Ribes, Aurelien. Estimating daily climatological normals in a changing climate[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,53(1-2):275-286
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