globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14542
WOS ID: WOS:000461817500018
Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial warming
Author: Liu, Bing1; Martre, Pierre2; Ewert, Frank3,4; Porter, John R.5,6,7; Challinor, Andy J.8,9; Mueller, Christoph10,11; Ruane, Alex C.12; Waha, Katharina13; Thorburn, Peter J.13; Aggarwal, Pramod K.14; Ahmed, Mukhtar15,16; Balkovic, Juraj17,18; Basso, Bruno19,20; Biernath, Christian21; Bindi, Marco22; Cammarano, Davide23; De Sanctis, Giacomo24; Dumont, Benjamin25,26; Espadafor, Monica27; Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi3,28; Ferrise, Roberto22; Garcia-Vila, Margarita27; Gayler, Sebastian29; Gao, Yujing; Horan, Heidi13; Hoogenboom, Gerrit30,31; Izaurralde, Roberto C.32,33; Jones, Curtis D.32; Kassie, Belay T.30; Kersebaum, Kurt C.4; Klein, Christian21; Koehler, Ann-Kristin8; Maiorano, Andrea2,34; Minoli, Sara10,11; San Martin, Manuel Montesino5; Kumar, Soora Naresh35; Nendel, Claas4; O'; Leary, Garry J.36; Palosuo, Taru37; Priesack, Eckart21; Ripoche, Dominique38; Roetter, Reimund P.39,40; Semenov, Mikhail A.41; Stockle, Claudio15; Streck, Thilo29; Supit, Iwan42; Tao, Fulu37,43; Van der Velde, Marijn44; Wallach, Daniel45; Wang, Enli46; Webber, Heidi3,4; Wolf, Joost47; Xiao, Liujun1,30; Zhang, Zhao48; Zhao, Zhigan46,49; Zhu, Yan1; Asseng, Senthold30
Corresponding Author: Zhu, Yan ; Asseng, Senthold
ISSN: 1354-1013
EISSN: 1365-2486
Publishing Year: 2019
Volume: 25, Issue:4, Pages:1428-1444
Language: 英语
Keyword: 1.5 degrees C warming ; climate change ; extreme low yields ; food security ; model ensemble ; wheat production
WOS Category: Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS Research Area: Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
English Abstract:

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2 degrees C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2 degrees C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5 degrees C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0 degrees C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2 degrees C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.

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Document Type: 期刊论文
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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Affiliation: 1.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Key Lab Crop Syst Anal & Decis Making,Jiangsu Ke, Natl Engn & Technol Ctr Informat Agr,Minist Agr, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
2.Univ Montpellier, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, LEPSE, Montpellier, France
3.Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat INRES, Bonn, Germany
4.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res ZALF, Muncheberg, Germany
5.Univ Copenhagen, Plant Environm Sci, Taastrup, Denmark
6.Lincoln Univ, Lincoln, New Zealand
7.Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, CIHEAM, Montpellier SupAgro,INRA,IAMM, Montpellier, France
8.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England
9.Int Ctr Trop Agr CIAT, ESSP Program Climate Change Agr & Food Secur, CGIAR, Cali, Colombia
10.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany
11.Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam, Germany
12.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA
13.CSIRO Agr & Food, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
14.CIMMYT, BISA, CGIAR Res Program Climate Change Agr & Food Secur, New Delhi, India
15.Washington State Univ, Biol Syst Engn, Pullman, WA 99164 USA
16.Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agr Univ, Dept Agron, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
17.Ecosyst Serv & Management Program, Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria
18.Comenius Univ, Fac Nat Sci, Dept Soil Sci, Bratislava, Slovakia
19.Michigan State Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA
20.Michigan State Univ, WK Kellogg Biol Stn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA
21.German Res Ctr Environm Hlth, Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen, Inst Biochem Plant Pathol, Neuherberg, Germany
22.Univ Florence, Depr Agrifood Prod & Environm Sci DISPAA, Florence, Italy
23.James Hutton Inst, Dundee, Scotland
24.European Food Safety Author, GMO Unit, Parma, Italy
25.Univ Liege, Gembloux Agrobio Tech, Dept AgroBioChem, Gembloux, Belgium
26.Univ Liege, Gembloux Agrobio Tech, TERRA Teaching & Res Ctr, Gembloux, Belgium
27.Univ Cordoba, Dept Agron, CSIC, IAS, Cordoba, Spain
28.Univ Gottingen, Dept Crop Sci, Gottingen, Germany
29.Univ Hohenheim, Inst Soil Sci & Land Evaluat, Stuttgart, Germany
30.Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
31.Univ Florida, Inst Sustainable Food Syst, Gainesville, FL USA
32.Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA
33.Texas A&M Univ, Texas A&M AgriLife Res & Extens Ctr, Temple, TX USA
34.European Food Safety Author, Parma, Italy
35.IARI, PUSA, Ctr Environm Sci & Climate Resilient Agr, New Delhi, India
36.Agr Victoria Res, Dept Econ Dev Jobs Transport & Resources, Grains Innovat Pk, Horsham, Vic, Australia
37.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Helsinki, Finland
38.INRA, US AgroClim, Avignon, France
39.Univ Gottingen, Trop Plant Prod & Agr Syst Modelling TROPAGS, Gottingen, Germany
40.Univ Gottingen, Ctr Biodivers & Sustainable Land Use CBL, Gottingen, Germany
41.Rothamsted Res, Harpenden, Herts, England
42.Wageningen Univ, Water Syst & Global Change Grp & WENR Water & Foo, Wageningen, Netherlands
43.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
44.Joint Res Ctr, European Commiss, Ispra, Italy
45.UMRAGIR, Castanet Tolosan, France
46.CSIRO Agr & Food, Black Mt, ACT, Australia
47.Wageningen Univ, Plant Prod Syst, Wageningen, Netherlands
48.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Processes & Resourcss, Beijing, Peoples R China
49.China Agr Univ, Dept Agron & Biotechnol, Beijing, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Liu, Bing,Martre, Pierre,Ewert, Frank,et al. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial warming[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2019-01-01,25(4):1428-1444
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