globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075005
论文题名:
The spatially varying influence of humans on fire probability in North America
作者: Marc-André Parisien; Carol Miller; Sean A Parks; Evan R DeLancey; François-Nicolas Robinne; Mike D Flannigan
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016-07-20
卷: 11, 期:7
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

Humans affect fire regimes by providing ignition sources in some cases, suppressing wildfires in others, and altering natural vegetation in ways that may either promote or limit fire. In North America, several studies have evaluated the effects of society on fire activity; however, most studies have been regional or subcontinental in scope and used different data and methods, thereby making continent-wide comparisons difficult. We circumvent these challenges by investigating the broad-scale impact of humans on fire activity using parallel statistical models of fire probability from 1984 to 2014 as a function of climate, enduring features (topography and percent nonfuel), lightning, and three indices of human activity (population density, an integrated metric of human activity [Human Footprint Index], and a measure of remoteness [roadless volume]) across equally spaced regions of the United States and Canada. Through a statistical control approach, whereby we account for the effect of other explanatory variables, we found evidence of non-negligible human–wildfire association across the entire continent, even in the most sparsely populated areas. A surprisingly coherent negative relationship between fire activity and humans was observed across the United States and Canada: fire probability generally diminishes with increasing human influence. Intriguing exceptions to this relationship are the continent's least disturbed areas, where fewer humans equate to less fire. These remote areas, however, also often have lower lightning densities, leading us to believe that they may be ignition limited at the spatiotemporal scale of the study. Our results suggest that there are few purely natural fire regimes in North America today. Consequently, projections of future fire activity should consider human impacts on fire regimes to ensure sound adaptation and mitigation measures in fire-prone areas.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075005
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/13864
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320-122nd Street, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada;Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 790 E Beckwith Avenue, Missoula, MT 59801, USA;Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 790 E Beckwith Avenue, Missoula, MT 59801, USA;Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320-122nd Street, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada;Western Partnership for Wildland Fire Science, University of Alberta, Department of Renewable Resources, 751 General Services Building, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada;Western Partnership for Wildland Fire Science, University of Alberta, Department of Renewable Resources, 751 General Services Building, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada;Western Partnership for Wildland Fire Science, University of Alberta, Department of Renewable Resources, 751 General Services Building, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Marc-André Parisien,Carol Miller,Sean A Parks,et al. The spatially varying influence of humans on fire probability in North America[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2016-01-01,11(7)
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