Extreme precipitation often persists for multiple days with variable duration but has usually been examined at fixed duration. Here we show that considering extreme persistent precipitation by complete event with variable duration, rather than a fixed temporal period, is a necessary metric to account for the complexity of changing precipitation. Observed global mean annual-maximum precipitation is significantly stronger (49.5%) for persistent extremes than daily extremes. However, both globally observed and modeled rates of relative increases are lower for persistent extremes compared to daily extremes, especially for Southern Hemisphere and large regions in the 0-45 degrees N latitude band. Climate models also show significant differences in the magnitude and partly even the sign of local mean changes between daily and persistent extremes in global warming projections. Changes in extreme precipitation therefore are more complex than previously reported, and extreme precipitation events with varying duration should be taken into account for future climate change assessments.
1.Northeast Normal Univ, Key Lab Geog Proc & Ecol Secur Changbai Mt, Minist Educ, Sch Geog Sci, Changchun, Jilin, Peoples R China 2.Univ Missouri, Sch Nat Resource, Columbia, MO USA 3.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia 4.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW, Australia 5.Barcelona Supercomp Ctr, Barcelona, Spain 6.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Fac Earth & Life Sci, Dept Earth Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands 7.Indian Meteorol Dept, Natl Climate Ctr, Pune, Maharashtra, India 8.Univ Tasmania, Tasmanian Inst Agr, Hobart, Tas, Australia 9.South African Weather Serv, Climate Serv, Pretoria, South Africa 10.Univ Pretoria, Dept Geog Geoinformat & Meteorol, Fac Nat & Agr Sci, Pretoria, South Africa 11.Jeju Natl Univ, Geog Educ, Jeju Si, South Korea 12.Tokyo Metropolitan Univ, Dept Geog, Hachioji, Tokyo, Japan 13.Univ Buenos Aires, CONICET, Dept Ciencias Atmosfera & Oceanos, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina 14.Natl Univ Mongolia, Sch Arts & Sci, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 15.Informat & Res Inst Meteorol Hydrol & Environm, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 16.Univ Cantabria, Meteorol Grp, Inst Phys Cantabria IFCA, CSIC, Santander, Spain 17.King Fahd Univ Petr & Minerals, Res Inst, Ctr Engn Res, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia 18.Govt Coll Univ, Dept Environm Sci & Engn, Faisalabad, Pakistan 19.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China 20.Univ Abomey Calavi, Dept Geog & Planning, Climatol Lab, Abomey Calavi, Benin 21.Univ Estadual Paulista, Fac Ciencias, Sao Paulo, Brazil 22.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China 23.Univ Fed Rio Grande do Norte, Programa Posgrad Ciencias Climat, Natal, RN, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Du, Haibo,Alexander, Lisa V.,Donat, Markus G.,et al. Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019-01-01,46(11):6041-6049