利用法国国家气象研究中心气候模型(Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Climate Model, CNRM)典型代表性浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP)情景资料和可变下渗容量模型(Variable Infiltration Capacity Model,VIC),分析了淮河流域未来气温、降水、水资源及可能洪水的变化趋势。结果表明,淮河流域未来气温将持续升高,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下未来2021~2050年较基准期(1961~1990年)升幅分别约为1.13℃、1.10℃和1.35℃;流域降水可能呈现略微增加趋势,3种排放情景下2021~2050年降水较基准期将分别增加5.81%、8.26%和6.94%;VIC模型在淮河流域具有较好的适用性,能较好地模拟淮河流域的水文过程,在率定期和检验期,模型对王家坝站和蚌埠站模拟的水量相对误差都在5%以内,日径流过程的Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数(NSE)在0.70以上,月径流过程的NSE达到0.85以上。气候变化将导致淮河流域水文循环强度增加,流域水资源总体将可能呈增加趋势,王家坝站和蚌埠站断面洪水事件的发生可能性将增大。
英文摘要:
Climate change has been to be hot topic and hot spot in recent years. Hydrologic precess has been impact by climate change significantly. Nowdays climate change scenariois a very important and useful tool in the study of climate change. Based on the data of Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Climate Model (CNRM) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and Variable Infiltration Capacity model(VIC model), temperature, precipitation, water resources and flood events in future over the Huaihe River Basin were analyzed. The results show that the temperature keeps on significant rising trend in 2021-2050, with rising of 1.13℃,1.10℃ and 1.35℃ under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios compared with baseline(1961-1990) respectively. Precipitations under the three RCP scenarios were projected to increase by 5.81%, 8.26% and 6.94% during 2021-2050 compared with baseline in 1961-1990. The VIC model hasgood ability to simulate the hydrological process over the Huaihe River Basin. The VIC model can effectively simulate the daily andmonthly discharge procedure, water balance errors between simulated and recorded discharge for two hydrometric stations which are Wangjiaba and Bengbu are less than 5%, while Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of daily and monthly discharge simulation are both beyond 0.70 and 0.85 respectively both of calibration and validation.So we can use the VIC model to assess the hydrologicalprocess change effectively. Water Resources in the future over the Huaihe River Basin may take a slight increasing trend, but the extremeflood events would be more severe and the floodrisk would be further expanded in the future under the changing climate. In order to adapt and mitigate the impact of climate change, the plan and strategy about sustainable flood management should be proposed as soon as possible.