globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6208304
论文题名:
巴黎协定背景下全球减排博弈模拟研究
其他题名: Game simulation on emission reduction under the background of the Paris Agreement
作者: 吴静1; 朱潜挺2; 王诗琪3; 王铮4
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2018
卷: 14, 期:2, 页码:618-632
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候博弈 ; 减排 ; 巴黎协定 ; 2℃目标
英文关键词: Climate game ; Emission reduction ; Paris Agreement ; 2℃ target
WOS学科分类: LAW ; METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Government & Law ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 构建了具有7个国家集团的全球多国家集团气候博弈集成评估模拟系统,针对《巴黎协定》背景下各国至2050年以及2100年的减排目标,分别对减排博弈的纳什均衡、博弈不确定性以及外部政策对减排博弈的影响展开了模拟分析。研究发现:在基准情景下,全球各国将在2030年后均选择不减排策略,全球至2100年升温达到2.62℃;而模型参数的不确定性也未能突破全球零减排的纳什均衡;而仅当在全球范围内对不减排采取惩罚措施时,全球零减排的纳什均衡点被打破。但在当前《巴黎协定》减排承诺下,为达到2℃的温控目标,加大20302050年的减排幅度至关重要,否则全球将在2040年左右突破2℃阈值。
英文摘要: A seven-region based integrated assessment model is established in this paper targeting to model the emission reduction game worldwide. Under the Paris Agreement, given the emission mitigation scheme by 2025/2030, 2050, and 2100 for each country (region) as gaming strategy, the Nash equilibrium, the uncertainties of the game and the influences from external mitigation mechanisms are evaluated in each strategy combinations. In the reference scenario, no country (region) would take emission reduction after 2030 for the sake of their own optimal social welfare improvement, leading the global temperature rising to 2.62℃ by 2100. The Nash equilibrium remains stable even when the climatic and economic parameters are disturbed. As an alternative, an external sanction on non-mitigation is applied; in this scenario, climate change mitigation propagates across countries (regions) according to various sanction levels, in which developed countries tend to adopt mitigation strategy earlier than developing countries as a response to the non-mitigation sanction. Meanwhile, under the Paris Agreement, simulation also reveals the emission reduction from 2030 to 2050 has become crucial for making the 2℃ threshold viable if no extra mitigations are implemented before 2030. An emission reduction target higher than the developed and developing countries cutting emission 80% and 50% on 1990 level by 2050 is required in this circumstance, otherwise the global temperature will overshoot 2℃ around 2040.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154478
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
2.中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,
3.,
4., 北京
5.北京 100190
6.100049, 中国
7.中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院, 北京 102249, 中国
8.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院, 北京 100190, 中国
9.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
10.中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院
11.华东师范大学,
12.地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,
13., 北京
14.北京
15.上海 100190
16.100049
17.200062, 中国

Recommended Citation:
吴静,朱潜挺,王诗琪,等. 巴黎协定背景下全球减排博弈模拟研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2018-01-01,14(2):618-632
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