DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114568
论文题名: Analyzing the impact of climate change on energy-economy-carbon nexus system in China
作者: Mei H. ; Li Y.P. ; Suo C. ; Ma Y. ; Lv J.
刊名: Applied Energy
ISSN: 3062619
出版年: 2020
卷: 262 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Energy-economy-carbon nexus
; Multi-GCM
; Multiple uncertainties
; Simulation-optimization
; Systems analysis
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Computer programming
; Constrained optimization
; Fossil fuels
; Global warming
; Intelligent systems
; Monte Carlo methods
; Solar energy
; Support vector regression
; Systems analysis
; Uncertainty analysis
; Wind power
; Carbon dioxide emissions
; Chance-constrained programming
; Climate change mitigation
; Coal-fired power generation
; Energy economy
; Multi-GCM
; Multiple uncertainties
; Simulation optimization
; Climate models
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; climate change
; computer simulation
; electricity generation
; energy market
; environmental economics
; general circulation model
; optimization
; China
英文摘要: Climate change mitigation by reducing carbon dioxide emission becomes one of the major challenges for energy systems. In this study, a multi-GCM ensemble simulation and optimization approach is developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on China's energy-economy-carbon nexus system under multiple uncertainties through integrating techniques of multiple global climate models, support-vector-regression, Monte Carlo simulation, and interval chance-constrained programming within a general framework. The developed approach can tackle multiple uncertainties existed in global climate models, random carbon dioxide emission and complex optimization process. Results disclose that (i) the national electricity demand would grow around 58.6% in the next 30 years under climate change; (ii) for climate change mitigation and sustainable development, fossil fuel would be gradually replaced by renewable energy (i.e. the share of fossil fuel to the total energy supply decreasing 22.5% and the share of electricity generated from renewable energy increasing 27.0% by 2050); (iii) compared to the peak value in 2030, carbon dioxide emission would reduce 15.1% by 2050, most reduction from coal-fired power generation; (iv) there is a tradeoff between carbon dioxide emission and system cost as p-level decreases from 0.15 to 0.01 (i.e. carbon dioxide emission can reduce 1.9% with 3.7% of raised system cost). It is desired for China to adjust its current energy supply structure for reducing carbon emission and seeking a low-carbon developmental path. The most effective way is to eliminate some small coal-fired units. A number of wind-power and solar-power projects are expected to be implemented due to their abundant potential markets. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158674
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Environment and Energy Systems Engineering Research Center, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Sask S4S 7H9, Canada; Sino-Canada Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China
Recommended Citation:
Mei H.,Li Y.P.,Suo C.,et al. Analyzing the impact of climate change on energy-economy-carbon nexus system in China[J]. Applied Energy,2020-01-01,262