DOI: 10.1002/joc.6301
论文题名: Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models
作者: Villafuerte M.Q. ; II ; Macadam I. ; Daron J. ; Katzfey J. ; Cinco T.A. ; Ares E.D. ; Jones R.G.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2020
卷: 40, 期: 3 语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; climate projections
; multi-model ensemble
; the Philippines
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Rain
; Climate change projections
; Climate model simulations
; Climate projection
; Dynamical downscaling
; Future climate projections
; Multi-model ensemble
; Philippines
; Temporal characteristics
; Climate models
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; ensemble forecasting
; rainfall
; Philippines
英文摘要: To help meet increasing demands for high-resolution climate change projections in the Philippines, this study provides the results of multiple dynamically downscaled climate model simulations for projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the country by the mid-21st century (2036–2065) relative to the baseline period (1971–2000), under the RCP8.5 scenario. The model-simulated seasonal means of temperature, rainfall, and low-level wind patterns were first compared with observations during the baseline period. Comparisons made between the model-derived and APHRODITE observation-based gridded temperature and rainfall data indicate that the dynamically downscaled simulations provide an overall improvement from their driving global climate models in capturing the spatial patterns of rainfall over the country, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the country's mean temperature. Future climate projections show that the country's climate is expected to become warmer by the mid-21st century, with a multi-model ensemble mean increase of 1.2 to 1.9°C, relative to the baseline period, projected for many parts of the country and across most seasons. Slightly higher increases are projected during the country's hottest season, March–April–May. However, there are large differences in the models' projected rainfall changes by the mid-21st century across seasons and regions. For most parts of the country, the multi-model ensemble includes simulations that show increases and simulations that show decreases in rainfall. Nevertheless, there is a tendency of model projections towards wetter conditions over northern and central sections of the country (particularly in the December–January–February season) and drier conditions in the southern region of the country in almost all seasons. The results demonstrate the need for communities in the Philippines to adapt to a future warmer climate and prepare for a range of possible future changes in rainfall and temperature. © 2019 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158679
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Science and Technology - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Quezon City, Philippines; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; CSIRO, Aspendale, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Villafuerte M.Q.,II,Macadam I.,et al. Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2020-01-01,40(3)