DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135250
论文题名: Quantifying likelihoods of extreme occurrences causing maize yield reduction at the global scale
作者: Feng S. ; Hao Z.
刊名: Science of the Total Environment
ISSN: 489697
出版年: 2020
卷: 704 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Compound event
; Crop yield
; Drought
; Extreme
Scopus关键词: Chemical contamination
; Drought
; Food supply
; Global warming
; Multivariant analysis
; Temperature distribution
; Climate extremes
; Climate observations
; Compound event
; Crop yield
; Extreme
; Multivariate modeling
; Multivariate statistical modeling
; Precipitation temperature
; Crops
; crop yield
; drought
; extreme event
; maize
; precipitation (climatology)
; temperature effect
; article
; climate
; drought
; greenhouse effect
; harvest
; maize
; nonhuman
; plant yield
; precipitation
; temperature dependence
; agriculture
; catering service
; climate change
; drought
; greenhouse effect
; heat
; maize
; weather
; Zea mays
; Agriculture
; Climate Change
; Droughts
; Food Supply
; Global Warming
; Hot Temperature
; Weather
; Zea mays
英文摘要: A variety of weather and climate extremes (e.g., droughts, heatwaves) can lead to negative impacts on crop yields and food security. It is thus important to understand likelihoods of extreme occurrences causing crop yield reduction for enhanced resilience of the food system. Here, we investigate the likelihood of occurrences of dry, hot, and compound dry-hot conditions causing crop yield reduction for ten maize-producing countries based on climate observations and country-level maize yields for the period 1961–2016. The likelihood of occurrences of different extremes causing maize yield reduction is quantified using a multivariate statistical model. Results show that the multivariate model performs well in quantifying the likelihood of extreme occurrences (i.e., dry, hot and compound dry-hot conditions) causing maize yield reduction. Overall, the likelihood of occurrences of the above three conditions leading to yield reduction varies among ten maize-producing countries and that of compound dry-hot condition is the highest for most countries, which is shown to be closely related to the precipitation-temperature dependence of each country. Moreover, the likelihood of compound dry-hot occurrences becomes higher as the severity of crop yield reduction increases. These findings highlight significant impacts of compound dry-hot conditions on maize yield reduction and provide valuable information for formulating effective agricultural measures under global warming. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159221
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Recommended Citation:
Feng S.,Hao Z.. Quantifying likelihoods of extreme occurrences causing maize yield reduction at the global scale[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2020-01-01,704