DOI: 10.3390/cli8020022
论文题名: Independence of future changes of river runoff in Europe from the pathway to global warming
作者: Mentaschi L. ; Alfieri L. ; Dottori F. ; Cammalleri C. ; Bisselink B. ; Roo A.D. ; Feyen L.
刊名: Climate
ISSN: 22251154
出版年: 2020
卷: 8, 期: 2 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate adaptation
; Climate change
; Emission pathway
; Europe
; Extremes
; LISFLOOD
; PESETA project
; River runoff
; Warming levels
英文摘要: The outcomes of the 2015 Paris Agreement triggered a number of climate impact assessments, such as for floods and droughts, to focus on future time frames corresponding to the years of reaching specific levels of global warming. Yet, the links between the timing of the warming levels and the corresponding greenhouse gas concentration pathways to reach them remain poorly understood. To address this gap, we compared projected changes of annual mean, extreme high, and extreme low river discharges in Europe at 1.5 °C and 2 °C under Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 from an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The statistical significance of the difference between the two scenarios for both warming levels was then evaluated. The results show that in the majority of Europe (>95% of the surface area for the annual mean discharge, >98% for high and low extremes), the changes projected in the two pathways were statistically indistinguishable. These results suggest that in studies of changes at global warming levels, the projections of the two pathways can be merged into a single ensemble without major loss of information. With regard to the uncertainty of the unified ensemble, the findings show that the projected changes of annual mean, extreme high, and extreme low river discharge were statistically significant in large portions of Europe. © 2020 by the authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159401
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, 21027, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Mentaschi L.,Alfieri L.,Dottori F.,et al. Independence of future changes of river runoff in Europe from the pathway to global warming[J]. Climate,2020-01-01,8(2)