globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5d99
论文题名:
Early transformation of the Chinese power sector to avoid additional coal lock-in
作者: Wang H.; Chen W.; Bertram C.; Malik A.; Kriegler E.; Luderer G.; Després J.; Jiang K.; Krey V.
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 17489318
出版年: 2020
卷: 15, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文关键词: China ; coal lock-in ; power system ; stranded risks ; WB2Ctarget
Scopus关键词: Budget control ; Carbon ; Carbon dioxide ; Emission control ; Expansion ; Investments ; Locks (fasteners) ; Solar energy ; China ; Coal based power generation ; Coal based power plants ; Integrated assessment models ; Lock-in ; power system ; WB2Ctarget ; Wind and solar power ; Coal ; carbon budget ; carbon emission ; coal ; emission control ; government ; investment ; long-term change ; mitigation ; power generation ; power plant ; risk assessment ; China
英文摘要: Emission reduction from the coal-dominated power sector is vital for achieving China's carbon mitigation targets. Although the coal expansion has been slowed down due to the cancellation of and delay in new construction, coal-based power was responsible for over one third of China's energy-related CO2 emissions by 2018. Moreover, with a technical lifetime of over 30 years, current investment in coal-based power could hinder CO2 mitigation until 2050. Therefore, it is important to examine whether the current coal-based power planning aligns with the long-term climate targets. This paper introduces China's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals and an ambitious carbon budget along with global pathways well-below 2 degrees that are divided into five integrated assessment models, which are two national and three global models. We compare the models' results with bottom-up data on current capacity additions and expansion plans to examine if the NDC targets are in line with 2-degree pathways. The key findings are: 1. NDC goals alone are unlikely to lead to significant reductions in coal-based power generation. On the contrary, more plants may be built before 2030; 2. this would require an average of 187-261 TWh of annual coal-based power capacity reduction between 2030 and 2050 to achieve a 2 °C compatible trajectory, which would lead to the stranding of large-scale coal-based power plants; 3. if the reduction in coal power can be brought forward to 2020, the average annual coal-based power reduction required would be 104-155 TWh from 2020 to 2050 and the emissions could peak earlier; 4. early regulations in coal-based power would require accelerated promotion of alternatives between 2020 and 2030, with nuclear, wind and solar power expected to be the most promising alternatives. By presenting the stranding risk and viability of alternatives, we suggest that both the government and enterprises should remain cautious about making new investment in coal-based power sector. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
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被引频次[WOS]:27   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/160011
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作者单位: Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; European Commission Joint Research Centre, Edificio Expo; C/Inca Garcilaso, 3, Seville, E-41092, Spain; Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing, China; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria

Recommended Citation:
Wang H.,Chen W.,Bertram C.,et al. Early transformation of the Chinese power sector to avoid additional coal lock-in[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2020-01-01,15(2)
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