globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1719903115
论文题名:
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change
作者: McGuire A.D.; Lawrence D.M.; Koven C.; Clein J.S.; Burke E.; Chen G.; Jafarov E.; MacDougall A.H.; Marchenko S.; Nicolsky D.; Peng S.; Rinke A.; Ciais P.; Gouttevin I.; Hayes D.J.; Ji D.; Krinner G.; Moore J.C.; Romanovsky V.; Schädel C.; Schaefer K.; Schuur E.A.G.; Zhuang Q.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2018
卷: 115, 期:15
起始页码: 3882
结束页码: 3887
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Carbon dynamics ; Climate system ; Permafrost carbon-climate feedback ; Permafrost dynamics ; Soil carbon
Scopus关键词: carbon ; air analysis ; air temperature ; Article ; atmospheric radioactivity ; carbon dioxide evolution ; carbon dynamics ; climate change ; concentration (parameters) ; decomposition ; ecosystem monitoring ; environmental impact assessment ; geographic distribution ; human ; permafrost ; priority journal ; sensitivity analysis ; soil analysis ; vegetation
英文摘要: We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. © 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163755
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: McGuire, A.D., US Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States; Lawrence, D.M., Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; Koven, C., Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States; Clein, J.S., Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States; Burke, E., Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Chen, G., Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, United States, International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, United States; Jafarov, E., Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States; MacDougall, A.H., Department of Earth Sciences, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS B2G 2W5, Canada; Marchenko, S., Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States; Nicolsky, D., Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States; Peng, S., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique-CNRS, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, France, Institut des Geosciences de l'Environment, Universite Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble, F-38000, France; Rinke, A., Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Ciais, P., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique-CNRS, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, France; Gouttevin, I., Institut des Geosciences de l'Environment, Universite Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble, F-38000, France, Irstea, Hydrology-Hydraulics Research Unit, Villeurbanne Cedex, 69616, France; Hayes, D.J., Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, United States, School of Forest Resources, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, United States; Ji, D., College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Krinner, G., Institut des Geosciences de l'Environment, Universite Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble, F-38000, France; Moore, J.C., College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China, Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, 96101, Finland, Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; Romanovsky, V., Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States, International Institute of Cryology and Cryosphy, Tyumen State University, Tyumen, 625003, Russian Federation; Schädel, C., Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, United States, Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, United States; Schaefer, K., National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303, United States; Schuur, E.A.G., Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, United States, Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, United States; Zhuang, Q., Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, United States

Recommended Citation:
McGuire A.D.,Lawrence D.M.,Koven C.,et al. Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2018-01-01,115(15)
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