DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020
论文题名: Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
作者: Mudryk L. ; Santolaria-Otín M. ; Krinner G. ; Ménégoz M. ; Derksen C. ; Brutel-Vuilmet C. ; Brady M. ; Essery R.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2020
卷: 14, 期: 7 起始页码: 2495
结束页码: 2514
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; climate effect
; climate prediction
; CMIP
; historical record
; snow cover
; trend analysis
英文摘要: This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Where appropriate, the CMIP6 output is compared to CMIP5 results in order to assess progress (or absence thereof) between successive model generations. An ensemble of six observation-based products is used to produce a new time series of historical Northern Hemisphere snow extent anomalies and trends; a subset of four of these products is used for snow mass. Trends in snow extent over 1981-2018 are negative in all months and exceed-50 × 103 km2 yr-1 during November, December, March, and May. Snow mass trends are approximately-5 Gtyr-1 or more for all months from December to May. Overall, the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble better represents the snow extent climatology over the 1981-2014 period for all months, correcting a low bias in CMIP5. Simulated snow extent and snow mass trends over the 1981-2014 period are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, although large inter-model spread remains in the simulated trends for both variables. There is a single linear relationship between projected spring snow extent and global surface air temperature (GSAT) changes, which is valid across all CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. This finding suggests that Northern Hemisphere spring snow extent will decrease by about 8 % relative to the 1995-2014 level per degree Celsius of GSAT increase. The sensitivity of snow to temperature forcing largely explains the absence of any climate change pathway dependency, similar to other fast-response components of the cryosphere such as sea ice and near-surface permafrost extent. © 2020 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164541
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, M3H 5T4, Canada; Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Cnrs, Ige, Grenoble, 38000, France; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Mudryk L.,Santolaria-Otín M.,Krinner G.,et al. Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble[J]. Cryosphere,2020-01-01,14(7)