DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-571-2021
论文题名: Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
作者: Donat-Magnin M. ; Jourdain N.C. ; Kittel C. ; Agosta C. ; Amory C. ; Gallée H. ; Krinner G. ; Chekki M.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2021
卷: 15, 期: 2 起始页码: 571
结束页码: 593
语种: 英语
英文关键词: boundary condition
; climate change
; CMIP
; future prospect
; ice sheet
; mass balance
; melting
; Antarctic Ice Sheet
; Antarctica
; West Antarctic Ice Sheet
; West Antarctica
英文摘要: We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean seasonal climate-change anomaly to the present-day model boundary conditions. Using an anomaly has the advantage to reduce CMIP5 model biases, and a perfect-model test reveals that our approach captures most characteristics of future changes despite a 16 % 17 % underestimation of projected SMB and melt rates. SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the sector between Getz and Abbot increases from 336 Gtyr-1 in 1989 2009 to 455 Gtyr-1 in 2080 2100, which would reduce the global sea level changing rate by 0.33 mmyr-1. Snowfall indeed increases by 7.4 % °C-1 to 8.9 % °C-1 of near-surface warming due to increasing saturation water vapour pressure in warmer conditions, reduced sea-ice concentrations, and more marine air intrusion. Ice-shelf surface melt rates increase by an order of magnitude in the 21st century mostly due to higher downward radiation from increased humidity and to reduced albedo in the presence of melting. There is a net production of surface liquid water over eastern ice shelves (Abbot, Cosgrove, and Pine Island) but not over western ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, and Getz). This is explained by the evolution of the melt-to-snowfall ratio: below a threshold of 0.60 to 0.85 in our simulations, firn air is not entirely depleted by melt water, while entire depletion and net production of surface liquid water occur for higher ratios. This suggests that western ice shelves might remain unaffected by hydrofracturing for more than a century under RCP8.5, while eastern ice shelves have a high potential for hydrofracturing before the end of this century. © 2021 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164675
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France; SPHERES Research Unit, Geography Department, University of Liège, Liège, 4000, Belgium; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91198, France
Recommended Citation:
Donat-Magnin M.,Jourdain N.C.,Kittel C.,et al. Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet[J]. Cryosphere,2021-01-01,15(2)