globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0113749
论文题名:
Improving the Use of Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning and Management under Climate Change
作者: Luciana L. Porfirio; Rebecca M. B. Harris; Edward C. Lefroy; Sonia Hugh; Susan F. Gould; Greg Lee; Nathaniel L. Bindoff; Brendan Mackey
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2014
发表日期: 2014-11-24
卷: 9, 期:11
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate modeling ; Moths and butterflies ; Climate change ; Solar radiation ; Rain ; Paleoclimatology ; Theoretical ecology ; Conservation science
英文摘要: Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.
URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0113749&type=printable
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/17872
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Fenner School of Environment and Society, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia;Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia;Centre for the Environment, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia;Fenner School of Environment and Society, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia;Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia;Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia;Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia;Australia Research Council, Centre of Excellence in Climate System Science, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia;The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Oceans & Atmosphere Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia;Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Luciana L. Porfirio,Rebecca M. B. Harris,Edward C. Lefroy,et al. Improving the Use of Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning and Management under Climate Change[J]. PLOS ONE,2014-01-01,9(11)
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