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DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0098256
论文题名:	Uncertainty in Model Predictions of Vibrio vulnificus Response to Climate Variability and Change: A Chesapeake Bay Case Study
作者:	Erin A. Urquhart; Benjamin F. Zaitchik; Darryn W. Waugh; Seth D. Guikema; Carlos E. Del Castillo
刊名:	PLOS ONE
ISSN:	1932-6203
出版年:	2014
发表日期:	2014-5-29
卷:	9, 期:5
语种:	英语
英文关键词:	Vibrio vulnificus ; Salinity ; Climate change ; Surface temperature ; Surface water ; Forecasting ; Statistical models ; Vibrio
英文摘要:	The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3–0.4°C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist.
URL:	http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0098256&type=printable
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资源类型:	期刊论文
标识符:	http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/19580
Appears in Collections:	过去全球变化的重建影响、适应和脆弱性科学计划与规划气候变化与战略全球变化的国际研究计划气候减缓与适应气候变化事实与影响

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10.1371journal.pone.0098256.PDF（1703KB）	期刊论文	作者接受稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	View Download

作者单位:

Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America;Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America;Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America;Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America;Ocean Ecology Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, United States of America

Recommended Citation:

Erin A. Urquhart,Benjamin F. Zaitchik,Darryn W. Waugh,et al. Uncertainty in Model Predictions of Vibrio vulnificus Response to Climate Variability and Change: A Chesapeake Bay Case Study[J]. PLOS ONE,2014-01-01,9(5)

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